Europa League Last 16
Global 3-3
Crvena Zvezda vs AEK Athens analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
69.5%
Win probability
2.37
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
0.1%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.1%
7-0
0.3%
8-1
0.1%
9-2
<0%
+7
0.4%
6-0
0.9%
7-1
0.3%
8-2
<0%
+6
1.2%
5-0
2.3%
6-1
0.8%
7-2
0.1%
8-3
<0%
+5
3.3%
4-0
4.9%
5-1
2.1%
6-2
0.4%
7-3
<0%
+4
7.5%
3-0
8.2%
4-1
4.5%
5-2
1%
6-3
0.1%
+3
13.9%
2-0
10.4%
3-1
7.6%
4-2
2.1%
5-3
0.3%
6-4
<0%
+2
20.4%
1-0
8.8%
2-1
9.6%
3-2
3.5%
4-3
0.6%
5-4
0.1%
+1
22.6%
17.5%
Draw
0-0
3.7%
1-1
8.1%
2-2
4.5%
3-3
1.1%
4-4
0.1%
5-5
<0%
0
17.5%
12.9%
Win probability
0.93
Expected goals
0-1
3.4%
1-2
3.7%
2-3
1.4%
3-4
0.3%
4-5
0%
-1
8.8%
0-2
1.6%
1-3
1.2%
2-4
0.3%
3-5
0%
-2
3.1%
0-3
0.5%
1-4
0.3%
2-5
0.1%
-3
0.8%
0-4
0.1%
1-5
0%
-4
0.2%
0-5
0%
-5
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Crvena Zvezda
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Nov. 1976 |
AEK
2 - 0
CRV
48%
24%
28%
|
83 | 77 | 6 | 0 |
| 03 Nov. 1976 |
CRV
1 - 0
RBS
88%
8%
4%
|
83 | 66 | 17 | 0 |
| 20 Oct. 1976 |
RBS
2 - 1
CRV
15%
24%
61%
|
83 | 67 | 16 | 0 |
| 30 Sep. 1976 |
CRV
4 - 1
LPL
74%
16%
10%
|
83 | 75 | 8 | 0 |
| 16 Sep. 1976 |
LPL
2 - 1
CRV
51%
23%
27%
|
83 | 75 | 8 | 0 |
Matches
AEK Athens
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Nov. 1976 |
AEK
2 - 0
CRV
48%
24%
28%
|
77 | 83 | 6 | 0 |
| 03 Nov. 1976 |
DER
2 - 3
AEK
91%
6%
3%
|
76 | 87 | 11 | +1 |
| 20 Oct. 1976 |
AEK
2 - 0
DER
23%
24%
53%
|
75 | 88 | 13 | +1 |
| 29 Sep. 1976 |
DIN
2 - 1
AEK
65%
18%
17%
|
75 | 78 | 3 | 0 |
| 15 Sep. 1976 |
AEK
2 - 0
DIN
46%
23%
31%
|
74 | 79 | 5 | +1 |