Conmebol Sudamericana Quarter-finals
First-leg 2-0
Cruzeiro vs Libertad analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
68.4%
Win probability
2.05
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.2%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.2%
6-0
0.6%
7-1
0.1%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.8%
5-0
1.9%
6-1
0.5%
7-2
<0%
+5
2.4%
4-0
4.6%
5-1
1.4%
6-2
0.2%
7-3
<0%
+4
6.1%
3-0
9%
4-1
3.3%
5-2
0.5%
6-3
<0%
+3
12.8%
2-0
13.2%
3-1
6.5%
4-2
1.2%
5-3
0.1%
+2
20.9%
1-0
12.9%
2-1
9.5%
3-2
2.3%
4-3
0.3%
5-4
<0%
+1
25%
19.6%
Draw
0-0
6.3%
1-1
9.3%
2-2
3.4%
3-3
0.6%
4-4
0.1%
0
19.6%
12.1%
Win probability
0.72
Expected goals
0-1
4.5%
1-2
3.3%
2-3
0.8%
3-4
0.1%
-1
8.8%
0-2
1.6%
1-3
0.8%
2-4
0.1%
3-5
0%
-2
2.6%
0-3
0.4%
1-4
0.1%
2-5
0%
-3
0.6%
0-4
0.1%
1-5
0%
-4
0.1%
0-5
0%
-5
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+4%
+4%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Cruzeiro
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sep. 2024 |
LIB
0 - 2
CRZ
33%
28%
40%
|
87 | 77 | 10 | 0 |
| 15 Sep. 2024 |
CRZ
0 - 1
SAO
47%
26%
27%
|
87 | 87 | 0 | 0 |
| 01 Sep. 2024 |
CRZ
3 - 1
ATL
43%
26%
31%
|
87 | 87 | 0 | 0 |
| 29 Aug. 2024 |
CRZ
0 - 0
SCI
51%
26%
23%
|
87 | 87 | 0 | 0 |
| 26 Aug. 2024 |
SCI
1 - 0
CRZ
52%
25%
23%
|
87 | 87 | 0 | 0 |
Matches
Libertad
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sep. 2024 |
LIB
0 - 2
CRZ
33%
28%
40%
|
77 | 87 | 10 | 0 |
| 15 Sep. 2024 |
LIB
2 - 1
CCP
46%
26%
28%
|
76 | 78 | 2 | +1 |
| 11 Sep. 2024 |
AME
0 - 1
LIB
41%
27%
32%
|
76 | 74 | 2 | 0 |
| 08 Sep. 2024 |
SAN
0 - 1
LIB
27%
25%
48%
|
76 | 66 | 10 | 0 |
| 31 Aug. 2024 |
LIB
0 - 1
JLM
51%
25%
24%
|
77 | 75 | 2 | -1 |