Copa Libertadores Final
Global 8-5
Cruzeiro vs River Plate analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
63.5%
Win probability
2.32
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
0.1%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.1%
7-0
0.2%
8-1
0.1%
9-2
<0%
+7
0.3%
6-0
0.7%
7-1
0.3%
8-2
<0%
+6
1%
5-0
1.7%
6-1
0.8%
7-2
0.1%
8-3
<0%
+5
2.7%
4-0
3.8%
5-1
2%
6-2
0.4%
7-3
0.1%
+4
6.3%
3-0
6.5%
4-1
4.3%
5-2
1.1%
6-3
0.2%
7-4
<0%
+3
12.1%
2-0
8.4%
3-1
7.4%
4-2
2.5%
5-3
0.4%
6-4
<0%
+2
18.8%
1-0
7.3%
2-1
9.6%
3-2
4.3%
4-3
0.9%
5-4
0.1%
6-5
<0%
+1
22.2%
18.9%
Draw
0-0
3.1%
1-1
8.3%
2-2
5.5%
3-3
1.6%
4-4
0.3%
5-5
<0%
0
18.9%
17.6%
Win probability
1.15
Expected goals
0-1
3.6%
1-2
4.8%
2-3
2.1%
3-4
0.5%
4-5
0.1%
-1
11%
0-2
2.1%
1-3
1.8%
2-4
0.6%
3-5
0.1%
4-6
0%
-2
4.6%
0-3
0.8%
1-4
0.5%
2-5
0.1%
3-6
0%
-3
1.5%
0-4
0.2%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.4%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+4%
+3%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Cruzeiro
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 May. 1976 |
CRZ
4 - 1
LIG
76%
14%
10%
|
88 | 76 | 12 | 0 |
| 20 May. 1976 |
CRZ
7 - 1
ALI
86%
10%
4%
|
88 | 70 | 18 | 0 |
| 12 May. 1976 |
ALI
0 - 4
CRZ
24%
27%
49%
|
87 | 71 | 16 | +1 |
| 09 May. 1976 |
LIG
1 - 3
CRZ
34%
27%
39%
|
87 | 77 | 10 | 0 |
| 04 Apr. 1976 |
CRZ
4 - 1
OLI
82%
12%
6%
|
87 | 76 | 11 | 0 |
Matches
River Plate
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Jul. 1976 |
RIV
1 - 0
IND
70%
18%
12%
|
85 | 82 | 3 | 0 |
| 30 Jun. 1976 |
RIV
3 - 0
PEÑ
77%
14%
9%
|
85 | 83 | 2 | 0 |
| 23 Jun. 1976 |
IND
0 - 1
RIV
49%
24%
27%
|
85 | 82 | 3 | 0 |
| 15 Jun. 1976 |
PEÑ
1 - 0
RIV
47%
25%
28%
|
85 | 82 | 3 | 0 |
| 13 May. 1976 |
RIV
0 - 0
IND
70%
18%
12%
|
85 | 81 | 4 | 0 |