FA Cup 1/128
Global 5-3
Crewe Alexandra vs Derby County analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
28.1%
Win probability
1.23
Expected goals
6-0
<0%
+6
<0%
5-0
0.1%
6-1
<0%
+5
0.2%
4-0
0.5%
5-1
0.2%
6-2
<0%
+4
0.8%
3-0
1.7%
4-1
0.9%
5-2
0.2%
6-3
<0%
+3
2.8%
2-0
4.1%
3-1
2.8%
4-2
0.7%
5-3
0.1%
+2
7.8%
1-0
6.8%
2-1
6.9%
3-2
2.4%
4-3
0.4%
5-4
<0%
+1
16.5%
24.1%
Draw
0-0
5.5%
1-1
11.3%
2-2
5.8%
3-3
1.3%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
24.1%
47.8%
Win probability
1.67
Expected goals
0-1
9.2%
1-2
9.4%
2-3
3.2%
3-4
0.6%
4-5
0.1%
-1
22.5%
0-2
7.7%
1-3
5.3%
2-4
1.4%
3-5
0.2%
4-6
0%
-2
14.5%
0-3
4.3%
1-4
2.2%
2-5
0.5%
3-6
0.1%
-3
7%
0-4
1.8%
1-5
0.7%
2-6
0.1%
3-7
0%
-4
2.7%
0-5
0.6%
1-6
0.2%
2-7
0%
-5
0.8%
0-6
0.2%
1-7
0%
-6
0.2%
0-7
0%
1-8
0%
-7
0.1%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Crewe Alexandra
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 Oct. 2023 |
TOW
0 - 1
CRE
35%
26%
40%
|
62 | 58 | 4 | 0 |
| 24 Oct. 2023 |
CRE
0 - 2
STO
24%
25%
51%
|
63 | 74 | 11 | -1 |
| 21 Oct. 2023 |
CRA
2 - 4
CRE
38%
26%
36%
|
62 | 59 | 3 | +1 |
| 14 Oct. 2023 |
CRE
2 - 0
TRA
61%
22%
17%
|
61 | 56 | 5 | +1 |
| 10 Oct. 2023 |
CRE
0 - 3
WRE
28%
22%
50%
|
62 | 69 | 7 | -1 |
Matches
Derby County
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 Oct. 2023 |
DER
4 - 0
NOR
59%
24%
17%
|
73 | 64 | 9 | 0 |
| 28 Oct. 2023 |
STE
3 - 1
DER
35%
29%
37%
|
74 | 70 | 4 | -1 |
| 24 Oct. 2023 |
DER
2 - 0
EXE
62%
23%
16%
|
73 | 62 | 11 | +1 |
| 21 Oct. 2023 |
STF
1 - 0
DER
18%
26%
56%
|
74 | 59 | 15 | -1 |
| 10 Oct. 2023 |
NOT
1 - 2
DER
40%
24%
36%
|
73 | 67 | 6 | +1 |