Connah's Quay vs Caernarfon Town FC analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
53%
Win probability
1.85
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.3%
7-1
0.1%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.4%
5-0
0.9%
6-1
0.3%
7-2
<0%
+5
1.2%
4-0
2.4%
5-1
1%
6-2
0.2%
7-3
<0%
+4
3.6%
3-0
5.1%
4-1
2.8%
5-2
0.6%
6-3
0.1%
+3
8.6%
2-0
8.3%
3-1
6%
4-2
1.6%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
16.2%
1-0
8.9%
2-1
9.8%
3-2
3.6%
4-3
0.6%
5-4
0.1%
+1
22.9%
22.7%
Draw
0-0
4.8%
1-1
10.5%
2-2
5.8%
3-3
1.4%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
22.7%
24.2%
Win probability
1.18
Expected goals
0-1
5.7%
1-2
6.2%
2-3
2.3%
3-4
0.4%
4-5
0%
-1
14.7%
0-2
3.4%
1-3
2.5%
2-4
0.7%
3-5
0.1%
-2
6.6%
0-3
1.3%
1-4
0.7%
2-5
0.2%
3-6
0%
-3
2.2%
0-4
0.4%
1-5
0.2%
2-6
0%
-4
0.6%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Connah's Quay
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06 Oct. 2023 |
ABE
1 - 1
CON
19%
25%
56%
|
68 | 51 | 17 | 0 |
| 30 Sep. 2023 |
CON
4 - 2
PEN
44%
28%
28%
|
68 | 68 | 0 | 0 |
| 26 Sep. 2023 |
CON
2 - 1
COL
67%
21%
13%
|
68 | 53 | 15 | 0 |
| 23 Sep. 2023 |
HAV
1 - 3
CON
25%
27%
47%
|
68 | 57 | 11 | 0 |
| 16 Sep. 2023 |
CON
4 - 0
CAR
45%
28%
27%
|
67 | 67 | 0 | +1 |
Matches
Caernarfon Town FC
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07 Oct. 2023 |
NEW
4 - 0
CAE
54%
23%
23%
|
60 | 66 | 6 | 0 |
| 30 Sep. 2023 |
BAR
0 - 3
CAE
29%
25%
46%
|
59 | 53 | 6 | +1 |
| 26 Sep. 2023 |
CAE
1 - 3
TNS
30%
25%
45%
|
60 | 68 | 8 | -1 |
| 23 Sep. 2023 |
CAE
1 - 0
PON
55%
23%
22%
|
59 | 57 | 2 | +1 |
| 16 Sep. 2023 |
PEN
3 - 2
CAE
56%
23%
21%
|
59 | 67 | 8 | 0 |