Comercial vs São José analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
36.1%
Win probability
1.38
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
+7
<0%
6-0
0.1%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.1%
5-0
0.2%
6-1
0.1%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.3%
4-0
0.9%
5-1
0.4%
6-2
0.1%
+4
1.3%
3-0
2.6%
4-1
1.3%
5-2
0.3%
6-3
<0%
+3
4.2%
2-0
5.7%
3-1
3.8%
4-2
0.9%
5-3
0.1%
6-4
<0%
+2
10.5%
1-0
8.3%
2-1
8.2%
3-2
2.7%
4-3
0.4%
5-4
<0%
+1
19.6%
25.2%
Draw
0-0
6%
1-1
11.9%
2-2
5.9%
3-3
1.3%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
25.2%
38.7%
Win probability
1.44
Expected goals
0-1
8.6%
1-2
8.5%
2-3
2.8%
3-4
0.5%
4-5
0%
-1
20.5%
0-2
6.2%
1-3
4.1%
2-4
1%
3-5
0.1%
4-6
0%
-2
11.4%
0-3
3%
1-4
1.5%
2-5
0.3%
3-6
0%
-3
4.7%
0-4
1.1%
1-5
0.4%
2-6
0.1%
-4
1.6%
0-5
0.3%
1-6
0.1%
2-7
0%
-5
0.4%
0-6
0.1%
1-7
0%
-6
0.1%
0-7
0%
-7
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-11%
+5%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Comercial
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Apr. 2011 |
GUA
3 - 3
COM
63%
22%
15%
|
52 | 62 | 10 | 0 |
| 10 Apr. 2011 |
COM
1 - 1
GUA
24%
23%
53%
|
52 | 63 | 11 | 0 |
| 07 Apr. 2011 |
SAO
0 - 0
COM
58%
22%
19%
|
51 | 57 | 6 | +1 |
| 02 Apr. 2011 |
COM
2 - 1
RIO
36%
25%
39%
|
51 | 55 | 4 | 0 |
| 27 Mar. 2011 |
AME
1 - 1
COM
49%
24%
27%
|
51 | 49 | 2 | 0 |
Matches
São José
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 Apr. 2011 |
SAO
4 - 1
RIO
48%
24%
28%
|
56 | 55 | 1 | 0 |
| 10 Apr. 2011 |
RIO
3 - 1
SAO
35%
26%
40%
|
57 | 53 | 4 | -1 |
| 07 Apr. 2011 |
SAO
0 - 0
COM
58%
22%
19%
|
57 | 51 | 6 | 0 |
| 03 Apr. 2011 |
GUA
2 - 0
SAO
46%
27%
28%
|
58 | 61 | 3 | -1 |
| 27 Mar. 2011 |
SAO
3 - 1
ATL
43%
25%
32%
|
57 | 57 | 0 | +1 |