Comercial vs Paulista analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
58.8%
Win probability
1.68
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.3%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.3%
5-0
0.9%
6-1
0.2%
7-2
<0%
+5
1.2%
4-0
2.8%
5-1
0.7%
6-2
0.1%
+4
3.6%
3-0
6.7%
4-1
2.2%
5-2
0.3%
6-3
<0%
+3
9.3%
2-0
12.1%
3-1
5.3%
4-2
0.9%
5-3
0.1%
+2
18.3%
1-0
14.4%
2-1
9.4%
3-2
2%
4-3
0.2%
5-4
<0%
+1
26.1%
24%
Draw
0-0
8.6%
1-1
11.2%
2-2
3.7%
3-3
0.5%
4-4
<0%
0
24%
17.1%
Win probability
0.78
Expected goals
0-1
6.7%
1-2
4.4%
2-3
0.9%
3-4
0.1%
-1
12.1%
0-2
2.6%
1-3
1.1%
2-4
0.2%
3-5
0%
-2
3.9%
0-3
0.7%
1-4
0.2%
2-5
0%
-3
0.9%
0-4
0.1%
1-5
0%
-4
0.2%
0-5
0%
-5
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-41%
-27%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Comercial
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08 Feb. 2020 |
COM
0 - 1
VEL
41%
27%
32%
|
53 | 51 | 2 | 0 |
| 01 Feb. 2020 |
NAC
0 - 0
COM
37%
26%
37%
|
53 | 47 | 6 | 0 |
| 30 Jan. 2020 |
COM
1 - 1
GRE
65%
22%
13%
|
53 | 38 | 15 | 0 |
| 25 Jan. 2020 |
RIO
1 - 0
COM
28%
26%
46%
|
54 | 45 | 9 | -1 |
| 28 Dec. 2019 |
COM
0 - 0
UBE
56%
25%
19%
|
54 | 46 | 8 | 0 |
Matches
Paulista
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08 Feb. 2020 |
NOR
2 - 0
PAU
56%
24%
20%
|
44 | 49 | 5 | 0 |
| 01 Feb. 2020 |
PAU
0 - 3
BER
37%
26%
37%
|
45 | 50 | 5 | -1 |
| 30 Jan. 2020 |
BAR
2 - 1
PAU
62%
22%
15%
|
45 | 53 | 8 | 0 |
| 25 Jan. 2020 |
PAU
1 - 1
NAC
44%
25%
32%
|
45 | 46 | 1 | 0 |
| 02 Nov. 2019 |
PAU
3 - 3
MAR
52%
24%
23%
|
45 | 43 | 2 | 0 |