Comercial vs Marília analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
57.6%
Win probability
1.68
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.3%
7-1
0.1%
+6
0.3%
5-0
0.9%
6-1
0.2%
7-2
<0%
+5
1.1%
4-0
2.7%
5-1
0.8%
6-2
0.1%
+4
3.5%
3-0
6.4%
4-1
2.2%
5-2
0.3%
6-3
<0%
+3
9%
2-0
11.5%
3-1
5.3%
4-2
0.9%
5-3
0.1%
+2
17.8%
1-0
13.7%
2-1
9.5%
3-2
2.2%
4-3
0.3%
5-4
<0%
+1
25.7%
24.1%
Draw
0-0
8.2%
1-1
11.3%
2-2
3.9%
3-3
0.6%
4-4
0.1%
0
24.1%
18.3%
Win probability
0.83
Expected goals
0-1
6.7%
1-2
4.7%
2-3
1.1%
3-4
0.1%
-1
12.6%
0-2
2.8%
1-3
1.3%
2-4
0.2%
3-5
0%
-2
4.3%
0-3
0.8%
1-4
0.3%
2-5
0%
-3
1.1%
0-4
0.2%
1-5
0%
-4
0.2%
0-5
0%
-5
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-39%
-17%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Comercial
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 Mar. 2017 |
TAB
1 - 0
COM
28%
26%
47%
|
51 | 39 | 12 | 0 |
| 26 Mar. 2017 |
COM
1 - 0
SJS
56%
24%
20%
|
51 | 45 | 6 | 0 |
| 23 Mar. 2017 |
POR
2 - 0
COM
25%
26%
49%
|
52 | 42 | 10 | -1 |
| 18 Mar. 2017 |
INT
1 - 1
COM
38%
27%
35%
|
52 | 50 | 2 | 0 |
| 16 Mar. 2017 |
COM
1 - 0
OLI
47%
25%
28%
|
51 | 49 | 2 | +1 |
Matches
Marília
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Mar. 2017 |
MAR
2 - 0
PAU
40%
26%
33%
|
43 | 47 | 4 | 0 |
| 25 Mar. 2017 |
MAR
1 - 0
SAO
25%
25%
50%
|
42 | 54 | 12 | +1 |
| 22 Mar. 2017 |
GRE
2 - 0
MAR
52%
25%
23%
|
43 | 45 | 2 | -1 |
| 18 Mar. 2017 |
NAC
1 - 0
MAR
66%
20%
14%
|
44 | 52 | 8 | -1 |
| 16 Mar. 2017 |
MAR
0 - 3
INT
39%
25%
36%
|
45 | 49 | 4 | -1 |