Comercial vs Guaratinguetá analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
35.2%
Win probability
1.32
Expected goals
6-0
<0%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.1%
5-0
0.2%
6-1
0.1%
+5
0.3%
4-0
0.8%
5-1
0.3%
6-2
<0%
+4
1.2%
3-0
2.5%
4-1
1.2%
5-2
0.2%
6-3
<0%
+3
3.9%
2-0
5.7%
3-1
3.5%
4-2
0.8%
5-3
0.1%
+2
10.1%
1-0
8.7%
2-1
8%
3-2
2.5%
4-3
0.4%
5-4
<0%
+1
19.6%
25.7%
Draw
0-0
6.6%
1-1
12.2%
2-2
5.6%
3-3
1.1%
4-4
0.1%
0
25.7%
39.1%
Win probability
1.4
Expected goals
0-1
9.3%
1-2
8.5%
2-3
2.6%
3-4
0.4%
4-5
0%
-1
20.9%
0-2
6.5%
1-3
4%
2-4
0.9%
3-5
0.1%
-2
11.5%
0-3
3%
1-4
1.4%
2-5
0.3%
3-6
0%
-3
4.7%
0-4
1.1%
1-5
0.4%
2-6
0.1%
-4
1.5%
0-5
0.3%
1-6
0.1%
2-7
0%
-5
0.4%
0-6
0.1%
1-7
0%
-6
0.1%
0-7
0%
-7
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Comercial
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 Feb. 2015 |
MIR
1 - 0
COM
60%
22%
18%
|
52 | 57 | 5 | 0 |
| 14 Feb. 2015 |
COM
0 - 2
FER
42%
27%
32%
|
53 | 55 | 2 | -1 |
| 11 Feb. 2015 |
UNI
0 - 0
COM
39%
27%
34%
|
53 | 49 | 4 | 0 |
| 08 Feb. 2015 |
MAT
3 - 1
COM
39%
25%
37%
|
54 | 50 | 4 | -1 |
| 04 Feb. 2015 |
COM
4 - 2
AGU
46%
25%
30%
|
53 | 52 | 1 | +1 |
Matches
Guaratinguetá
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 Feb. 2015 |
GUA
4 - 2
MAT
51%
23%
26%
|
54 | 51 | 3 | 0 |
| 14 Feb. 2015 |
PAU
2 - 0
GUA
24%
24%
52%
|
55 | 45 | 10 | -1 |
| 11 Feb. 2015 |
VEL
2 - 1
GUA
26%
23%
51%
|
56 | 49 | 7 | -1 |
| 07 Feb. 2015 |
GUA
1 - 4
RIO
49%
25%
27%
|
57 | 54 | 3 | -1 |
| 04 Feb. 2015 |
MON
2 - 1
GUA
29%
25%
46%
|
58 | 52 | 6 | -1 |