Comercial vs Guaraní analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
41.4%
Win probability
1.3
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
+7
<0%
6-0
0.1%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.1%
5-0
0.3%
6-1
0.1%
+5
0.4%
4-0
1.1%
5-1
0.3%
6-2
<0%
+4
1.4%
3-0
3.4%
4-1
1.2%
5-2
0.2%
6-3
<0%
+3
4.7%
2-0
7.8%
3-1
3.7%
4-2
0.6%
5-3
0.1%
+2
12.1%
1-0
12%
2-1
8.4%
3-2
2%
4-3
0.2%
5-4
<0%
+1
22.7%
27.6%
Draw
0-0
9.2%
1-1
13%
2-2
4.6%
3-3
0.7%
4-4
0.1%
0
27.6%
31%
Win probability
1.08
Expected goals
0-1
10%
1-2
7%
2-3
1.7%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
18.9%
0-2
5.4%
1-3
2.5%
2-4
0.4%
3-5
0%
-2
8.5%
0-3
2%
1-4
0.7%
2-5
0.1%
-3
2.7%
0-4
0.5%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.7%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-32%
-28%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Comercial
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 Feb. 2015 |
COM
2 - 1
GUA
35%
26%
39%
|
52 | 55 | 3 | 0 |
| 23 Feb. 2015 |
MIR
1 - 0
COM
60%
22%
18%
|
52 | 57 | 5 | 0 |
| 14 Feb. 2015 |
COM
0 - 2
FER
42%
27%
32%
|
53 | 56 | 3 | -1 |
| 11 Feb. 2015 |
UNI
0 - 0
COM
39%
27%
34%
|
54 | 49 | 5 | -1 |
| 08 Feb. 2015 |
MAT
3 - 1
COM
39%
25%
37%
|
55 | 50 | 5 | -1 |
Matches
Guaraní
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 Mar. 2015 |
GUA
1 - 0
CAT
58%
24%
18%
|
56 | 51 | 5 | 0 |
| 21 Feb. 2015 |
AGU
1 - 0
GUA
42%
25%
34%
|
57 | 52 | 5 | -1 |
| 14 Feb. 2015 |
OES
1 - 1
GUA
54%
25%
21%
|
57 | 60 | 3 | 0 |
| 11 Feb. 2015 |
GUA
0 - 2
MAT
57%
22%
20%
|
58 | 51 | 7 | -1 |
| 07 Feb. 2015 |
GUA
3 - 1
MIR
42%
26%
32%
|
57 | 58 | 1 | +1 |