Comercial vs Guaraní analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
24%
Win probability
1.16
Expected goals
6-0
<0%
+6
<0%
5-0
0.1%
6-1
<0%
+5
0.1%
4-0
0.4%
5-1
0.2%
6-2
<0%
+4
0.6%
3-0
1.3%
4-1
0.7%
5-2
0.1%
6-3
<0%
+3
2.2%
2-0
3.4%
3-1
2.4%
4-2
0.6%
5-3
0.1%
+2
6.5%
1-0
5.8%
2-1
6.2%
3-2
2.2%
4-3
0.4%
5-4
<0%
+1
14.6%
22.9%
Draw
0-0
5%
1-1
10.7%
2-2
5.7%
3-3
1.3%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
22.9%
53.1%
Win probability
1.83
Expected goals
0-1
9.2%
1-2
9.8%
2-3
3.5%
3-4
0.6%
4-5
0.1%
-1
23.1%
0-2
8.4%
1-3
6%
2-4
1.6%
3-5
0.2%
4-6
0%
-2
16.2%
0-3
5.1%
1-4
2.7%
2-5
0.6%
3-6
0.1%
-3
8.5%
0-4
2.4%
1-5
1%
2-6
0.2%
3-7
0%
-4
3.6%
0-5
0.9%
1-6
0.3%
2-7
0%
-5
1.2%
0-6
0.3%
1-7
0.1%
2-8
0%
-6
0.4%
0-7
0.1%
1-8
0%
-7
0.1%
0-8
0%
-8
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-11%
-25%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Comercial
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07 Apr. 2011 |
SAO
0 - 0
COM
58%
22%
19%
|
51 | 57 | 6 | 0 |
| 02 Apr. 2011 |
COM
2 - 1
RIO
36%
25%
39%
|
51 | 55 | 4 | 0 |
| 27 Mar. 2011 |
AME
1 - 1
COM
49%
24%
27%
|
51 | 49 | 2 | 0 |
| 23 Mar. 2011 |
COM
2 - 1
UNI
37%
26%
37%
|
50 | 54 | 4 | +1 |
| 20 Mar. 2011 |
SER
0 - 0
COM
43%
25%
32%
|
50 | 48 | 2 | 0 |
Matches
Guaraní
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06 Apr. 2011 |
RIO
1 - 3
GUA
26%
24%
50%
|
62 | 54 | 8 | 0 |
| 03 Apr. 2011 |
GUA
2 - 0
SAO
46%
27%
28%
|
61 | 58 | 3 | +1 |
| 31 Mar. 2011 |
GUA
2 - 2
HOR
55%
23%
22%
|
62 | 52 | 10 | -1 |
| 27 Mar. 2011 |
UNI
1 - 1
GUA
23%
24%
54%
|
62 | 48 | 14 | 0 |
| 23 Mar. 2011 |
GUA
1 - 0
SAO
46%
27%
28%
|
61 | 58 | 3 | +1 |