Comercial vs Ferroviária analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
25.3%
Win probability
1.04
Expected goals
6-0
<0%
+6
<0%
5-0
0.1%
6-1
<0%
+5
0.1%
4-0
0.4%
5-1
0.1%
6-2
<0%
+4
0.5%
3-0
1.4%
4-1
0.6%
5-2
0.1%
+3
2.1%
2-0
4%
3-1
2.2%
4-2
0.4%
5-3
<0%
+2
6.7%
1-0
7.7%
2-1
6.3%
3-2
1.7%
4-3
0.2%
5-4
<0%
+1
16%
25.4%
Draw
0-0
7.4%
1-1
12.1%
2-2
4.9%
3-3
0.9%
4-4
0.1%
0
25.4%
49.3%
Win probability
1.56
Expected goals
0-1
11.6%
1-2
9.4%
2-3
2.5%
3-4
0.3%
4-5
0%
-1
23.9%
0-2
9%
1-3
4.9%
2-4
1%
3-5
0.1%
-2
15%
0-3
4.7%
1-4
1.9%
2-5
0.3%
3-6
0%
-3
6.9%
0-4
1.8%
1-5
0.6%
2-6
0.1%
-4
2.5%
0-5
0.6%
1-6
0.2%
2-7
0%
-5
0.7%
0-6
0.1%
1-7
0%
-6
0.2%
0-7
0%
-7
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-4%
+15%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Comercial
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 Aug. 2016 |
BAT
0 - 2
COM
39%
27%
34%
|
52 | 51 | 1 | 0 |
| 13 Aug. 2016 |
COM
2 - 0
IND
41%
27%
32%
|
51 | 53 | 2 | +1 |
| 30 Jul. 2016 |
COM
5 - 0
MAT
52%
24%
23%
|
50 | 48 | 2 | +1 |
| 28 Jul. 2016 |
SAO
1 - 1
COM
42%
27%
31%
|
50 | 51 | 1 | 0 |
| 23 Jul. 2016 |
COM
0 - 2
RIO
34%
27%
39%
|
51 | 56 | 5 | -1 |
Matches
Ferroviária
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Aug. 2016 |
FER
1 - 0
RIO
49%
25%
26%
|
63 | 59 | 4 | 0 |
| 07 Aug. 2016 |
SAO
0 - 2
FER
18%
24%
58%
|
63 | 50 | 13 | 0 |
| 30 Jul. 2016 |
FER
5 - 0
IND
59%
24%
17%
|
62 | 54 | 8 | +1 |
| 28 Jul. 2016 |
BAT
0 - 2
FER
26%
26%
49%
|
62 | 53 | 9 | 0 |
| 23 Jul. 2016 |
FER
5 - 0
MAT
66%
21%
13%
|
61 | 48 | 13 | +1 |