Comercial vs Ferroviária analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
56.7%
Win probability
1.76
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.3%
7-1
0.1%
+6
0.3%
5-0
0.9%
6-1
0.3%
7-2
<0%
+5
1.2%
4-0
2.7%
5-1
0.9%
6-2
0.1%
+4
3.7%
3-0
6.1%
4-1
2.5%
5-2
0.4%
6-3
<0%
+3
9.1%
2-0
10.4%
3-1
5.7%
4-2
1.2%
5-3
0.1%
+2
17.5%
1-0
11.8%
2-1
9.8%
3-2
2.7%
4-3
0.4%
5-4
<0%
+1
24.7%
23.4%
Draw
0-0
6.7%
1-1
11.1%
2-2
4.6%
3-3
0.8%
4-4
0.1%
0
23.4%
19.9%
Win probability
0.94
Expected goals
0-1
6.3%
1-2
5.2%
2-3
1.4%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
13.2%
0-2
3%
1-3
1.6%
2-4
0.3%
3-5
0%
-2
5%
0-3
0.9%
1-4
0.4%
2-5
0.1%
-3
1.4%
0-4
0.2%
1-5
0.1%
-4
0.3%
0-5
0%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-11%
+34%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Comercial
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 Jul. 2013 |
COM
3 - 1
SAO
58%
23%
19%
|
55 | 49 | 6 | 0 |
| 25 Jul. 2013 |
INT
2 - 0
COM
32%
28%
40%
|
57 | 49 | 8 | -2 |
| 21 Jul. 2013 |
IND
0 - 0
COM
31%
26%
44%
|
57 | 48 | 9 | 0 |
| 13 Jul. 2013 |
COM
0 - 0
XVD
37%
27%
37%
|
57 | 62 | 5 | 0 |
| 28 Apr. 2013 |
COM
0 - 1
CAP
56%
22%
22%
|
57 | 53 | 4 | 0 |
Matches
Ferroviária
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 Jul. 2013 |
FER
1 - 1
INT
42%
26%
32%
|
50 | 50 | 0 | 0 |
| 25 Jul. 2013 |
FER
2 - 0
IND
46%
25%
30%
|
49 | 48 | 1 | +1 |
| 20 Jul. 2013 |
XVD
1 - 0
FER
71%
18%
11%
|
50 | 62 | 12 | -1 |
| 31 Mar. 2013 |
FER
1 - 0
SAN
34%
25%
41%
|
49 | 53 | 4 | +1 |
| 24 Mar. 2013 |
SAO
0 - 0
FER
56%
23%
20%
|
49 | 56 | 7 | 0 |