Paulista A3 Quarter-finals
Global 3-3
Comercial vs Desportivo Brasil analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
38%
Win probability
1.31
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
+7
<0%
6-0
0.1%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.1%
5-0
0.2%
6-1
0.1%
+5
0.3%
4-0
0.9%
5-1
0.3%
6-2
<0%
+4
1.3%
3-0
2.9%
4-1
1.2%
5-2
0.2%
6-3
<0%
+3
4.3%
2-0
6.6%
3-1
3.6%
4-2
0.8%
5-3
0.1%
+2
11.1%
1-0
10%
2-1
8.3%
3-2
2.3%
4-3
0.3%
5-4
<0%
+1
20.9%
26.5%
Draw
0-0
7.6%
1-1
12.6%
2-2
5.2%
3-3
1%
4-4
0.1%
0
26.5%
35.4%
Win probability
1.26
Expected goals
0-1
9.6%
1-2
7.9%
2-3
2.2%
3-4
0.3%
4-5
0%
-1
20.1%
0-2
6%
1-3
3.3%
2-4
0.7%
3-5
0.1%
-2
10.1%
0-3
2.5%
1-4
1%
2-5
0.2%
3-6
0%
-3
3.8%
0-4
0.8%
1-5
0.3%
2-6
0%
-4
1.1%
0-5
0.2%
1-6
0.1%
-5
0.3%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-34%
-14%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Comercial
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 Mar. 2019 |
VEL
0 - 0
COM
48%
27%
25%
|
50 | 53 | 3 | 0 |
| 24 Mar. 2019 |
COM
0 - 0
BAR
40%
27%
33%
|
49 | 52 | 3 | +1 |
| 20 Mar. 2019 |
BAT
1 - 1
COM
30%
28%
42%
|
50 | 43 | 7 | -1 |
| 15 Mar. 2019 |
GRE
0 - 1
COM
34%
27%
39%
|
49 | 43 | 6 | +1 |
| 09 Mar. 2019 |
COM
1 - 1
DES
34%
26%
39%
|
49 | 52 | 3 | 0 |
Matches
Desportivo Brasil
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 Mar. 2019 |
DES
1 - 0
BER
65%
21%
14%
|
51 | 42 | 9 | 0 |
| 23 Mar. 2019 |
PRI
1 - 0
DES
20%
26%
55%
|
51 | 45 | 6 | 0 |
| 20 Mar. 2019 |
DES
0 - 1
CAP
37%
24%
39%
|
52 | 54 | 2 | -1 |
| 16 Mar. 2019 |
DES
1 - 0
SAO
68%
20%
13%
|
52 | 42 | 10 | 0 |
| 09 Mar. 2019 |
COM
1 - 1
DES
34%
26%
39%
|
52 | 49 | 3 | 0 |