Comercial MS vs Vasco da Gama analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
13.4%
Win probability
0.69
Expected goals
5-0
<0%
+5
<0%
4-0
0.1%
5-1
<0%
+4
0.1%
3-0
0.4%
4-1
0.1%
5-2
<0%
+3
0.6%
2-0
1.9%
3-1
0.8%
4-2
0.1%
5-3
<0%
+2
2.9%
1-0
5.6%
2-1
3.5%
3-2
0.7%
4-3
0.1%
+1
9.9%
21.9%
Draw
0-0
8%
1-1
10.2%
2-2
3.2%
3-3
0.5%
4-4
<0%
0
21.9%
64.7%
Win probability
1.83
Expected goals
0-1
14.7%
1-2
9.3%
2-3
2%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
26.2%
0-2
13.5%
1-3
5.7%
2-4
0.9%
3-5
0.1%
-2
20.1%
0-3
8.2%
1-4
2.6%
2-5
0.3%
3-6
0%
-3
11.2%
0-4
3.8%
1-5
0.9%
2-6
0.1%
-4
4.8%
0-5
1.4%
1-6
0.3%
2-7
0%
-5
1.7%
0-6
0.4%
1-7
0.1%
-6
0.5%
0-7
0.1%
1-8
0%
-7
0.1%
0-8
0%
-8
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Comercial MS
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05 Jun. 2010 |
COM
1 - 0
NAV
50%
25%
26%
|
53 | 50 | 3 | 0 |
| 30 May. 2010 |
NAV
1 - 2
COM
45%
24%
30%
|
53 | 51 | 2 | 0 |
| 23 May. 2010 |
ITA
0 - 0
COM
40%
25%
35%
|
53 | 50 | 3 | 0 |
| 15 May. 2010 |
COM
1 - 0
ITA
48%
25%
28%
|
52 | 50 | 2 | +1 |
| 09 May. 2010 |
AGU
1 - 0
COM
39%
24%
37%
|
53 | 49 | 4 | -1 |
Matches
Vasco da Gama
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 Feb. 2011 |
AME
0 - 9
VAS
17%
23%
60%
|
79 | 50 | 29 | 0 |
| 06 Feb. 2011 |
VAS
3 - 0
AME
83%
13%
4%
|
79 | 47 | 32 | 0 |
| 03 Feb. 2011 |
VAS
0 - 0
VOL
83%
13%
5%
|
79 | 48 | 31 | 0 |
| 30 Jan. 2011 |
VAS
1 - 2
FLA
40%
26%
34%
|
80 | 83 | 3 | -1 |
| 27 Jan. 2011 |
BOA
3 - 1
VAS
17%
22%
62%
|
80 | 56 | 24 | 0 |