Comercial MS vs Rio Branco ES analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
29.5%
Win probability
1.21
Expected goals
6-0
<0%
+6
<0%
5-0
0.1%
6-1
<0%
+5
0.2%
4-0
0.6%
5-1
0.2%
6-2
<0%
+4
0.8%
3-0
1.8%
4-1
0.9%
5-2
0.2%
6-3
<0%
+3
2.9%
2-0
4.6%
3-1
2.9%
4-2
0.7%
5-3
0.1%
+2
8.2%
1-0
7.6%
2-1
7.1%
3-2
2.2%
4-3
0.4%
5-4
<0%
+1
17.4%
25%
Draw
0-0
6.3%
1-1
11.8%
2-2
5.6%
3-3
1.2%
4-4
0.1%
5-5
<0%
0
25%
45.5%
Win probability
1.56
Expected goals
0-1
9.8%
1-2
9.2%
2-3
2.9%
3-4
0.5%
4-5
0%
-1
22.4%
0-2
7.7%
1-3
4.8%
2-4
1.1%
3-5
0.1%
4-6
0%
-2
13.7%
0-3
4%
1-4
1.9%
2-5
0.4%
3-6
0%
-3
6.2%
0-4
1.6%
1-5
0.6%
2-6
0.1%
-4
2.2%
0-5
0.5%
1-6
0.2%
2-7
0%
-5
0.7%
0-6
0.1%
1-7
0%
-6
0.2%
0-7
0%
-7
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Comercial MS
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 Aug. 2015 |
APA
2 - 0
COM
61%
22%
17%
|
45 | 55 | 10 | 0 |
| 22 Aug. 2015 |
COM
2 - 0
OPE
49%
26%
25%
|
44 | 44 | 0 | +1 |
| 16 Aug. 2015 |
CAL
1 - 2
COM
65%
22%
13%
|
43 | 58 | 15 | +1 |
| 09 Aug. 2015 |
OPE
2 - 0
COM
49%
25%
27%
|
44 | 44 | 0 | -1 |
| 01 Aug. 2015 |
COM
0 - 1
CAL
27%
30%
44%
|
44 | 58 | 14 | 0 |
Matches
Rio Branco ES
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 Aug. 2015 |
RIO
1 - 1
APA
37%
27%
36%
|
50 | 55 | 5 | 0 |
| 16 Aug. 2015 |
OPE
2 - 3
RIO
34%
25%
41%
|
50 | 45 | 5 | 0 |
| 08 Aug. 2015 |
APA
0 - 0
RIO
54%
24%
22%
|
50 | 55 | 5 | 0 |
| 01 Aug. 2015 |
RIO
3 - 1
OPE
60%
22%
17%
|
49 | 45 | 4 | +1 |
| 18 Jul. 2015 |
RIO
2 - 1
COM
56%
23%
21%
|
50 | 45 | 5 | -1 |