Comercial MS vs Ceilândia analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
28%
Win probability
1.04
Expected goals
6-0
<0%
+6
<0%
5-0
0.1%
6-1
<0%
+5
0.1%
4-0
0.4%
5-1
0.1%
6-2
<0%
+4
0.6%
3-0
1.6%
4-1
0.6%
5-2
0.1%
+3
2.3%
2-0
4.7%
3-1
2.3%
4-2
0.4%
5-3
<0%
+2
7.5%
1-0
9.1%
2-1
6.6%
3-2
1.6%
4-3
0.2%
5-4
<0%
+1
17.5%
26.9%
Draw
0-0
8.8%
1-1
12.7%
2-2
4.6%
3-3
0.7%
4-4
0.1%
0
26.9%
45.1%
Win probability
1.39
Expected goals
0-1
12.3%
1-2
8.9%
2-3
2.1%
3-4
0.3%
4-5
0%
-1
23.5%
0-2
8.5%
1-3
4.1%
2-4
0.7%
3-5
0.1%
-2
13.5%
0-3
4%
1-4
1.4%
2-5
0.2%
3-6
0%
-3
5.6%
0-4
1.4%
1-5
0.4%
2-6
0%
-4
1.8%
0-5
0.4%
1-6
0.1%
-5
0.5%
0-6
0.1%
1-7
0%
-6
0.1%
0-7
0%
-7
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Comercial MS
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09 Jul. 2016 |
AAC
1 - 2
COM
49%
25%
27%
|
39 | 40 | 1 | 0 |
| 02 Jul. 2016 |
APA
2 - 0
COM
68%
20%
12%
|
41 | 53 | 12 | -2 |
| 25 Jun. 2016 |
COM
0 - 0
APA
23%
27%
50%
|
42 | 54 | 12 | -1 |
| 18 Jun. 2016 |
COM
0 - 2
AAC
46%
26%
29%
|
44 | 43 | 1 | -2 |
| 12 Jun. 2016 |
CEI
5 - 0
COM
42%
27%
32%
|
46 | 46 | 0 | -2 |
Matches
Ceilândia
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09 Jul. 2016 |
CEI
3 - 0
APA
31%
28%
41%
|
46 | 52 | 6 | 0 |
| 02 Jul. 2016 |
CEI
3 - 1
AAC
53%
24%
23%
|
46 | 42 | 4 | 0 |
| 26 Jun. 2016 |
AAC
2 - 4
CEI
43%
26%
31%
|
46 | 44 | 2 | 0 |
| 18 Jun. 2016 |
APA
3 - 2
CEI
57%
25%
18%
|
47 | 54 | 7 | -1 |
| 12 Jun. 2016 |
CEI
5 - 0
COM
42%
27%
32%
|
46 | 46 | 0 | +1 |