Comercial MS vs Araguaia AC analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
45.8%
Win probability
1.52
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
+7
<0%
6-0
0.1%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.1%
5-0
0.5%
6-1
0.1%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.6%
4-0
1.5%
5-1
0.5%
6-2
0.1%
+4
2.1%
3-0
4.1%
4-1
1.8%
5-2
0.3%
6-3
<0%
+3
6.1%
2-0
8%
3-1
4.6%
4-2
1%
5-3
0.1%
+2
13.8%
1-0
10.6%
2-1
9.2%
3-2
2.7%
4-3
0.4%
5-4
<0%
+1
22.9%
25.5%
Draw
0-0
7%
1-1
12.1%
2-2
5.3%
3-3
1%
4-4
0.1%
0
25.5%
28.7%
Win probability
1.15
Expected goals
0-1
8%
1-2
6.9%
2-3
2%
3-4
0.3%
4-5
0%
-1
17.3%
0-2
4.6%
1-3
2.7%
2-4
0.6%
3-5
0.1%
-2
7.9%
0-3
1.8%
1-4
0.8%
2-5
0.1%
3-6
0%
-3
2.7%
0-4
0.5%
1-5
0.2%
2-6
0%
-4
0.7%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Comercial MS
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 Jun. 2016 |
CEI
5 - 0
COM
42%
27%
32%
|
48 | 48 | 0 | 0 |
| 08 May. 2016 |
COM
0 - 2
7DE
40%
28%
32%
|
50 | 50 | 0 | -2 |
| 05 May. 2016 |
JEC
1 - 0
COM
67%
22%
11%
|
50 | 69 | 19 | 0 |
| 01 May. 2016 |
7DE
2 - 1
COM
42%
26%
32%
|
51 | 49 | 2 | -1 |
| 24 Apr. 2016 |
COM
0 - 0
COR
39%
27%
34%
|
51 | 52 | 1 | 0 |
Matches
Araguaia AC
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 Jun. 2016 |
AAC
0 - 1
APA
27%
26%
47%
|
46 | 56 | 10 | 0 |
| 01 May. 2016 |
SIN
3 - 1
AAC
40%
26%
34%
|
48 | 49 | 1 | -2 |
| 25 Apr. 2016 |
LUV
5 - 0
AAC
70%
18%
12%
|
49 | 62 | 13 | -1 |
| 17 Apr. 2016 |
AAC
4 - 1
CEC
53%
23%
24%
|
48 | 42 | 6 | +1 |
| 10 Apr. 2016 |
AAC
2 - 0
DBO
18%
22%
60%
|
46 | 60 | 14 | +2 |