Comercial MS vs Aparecidense analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
24.8%
Win probability
0.96
Expected goals
5-0
0.1%
6-1
<0%
+5
0.1%
4-0
0.3%
5-1
0.1%
6-2
<0%
+4
0.4%
3-0
1.3%
4-1
0.5%
5-2
0.1%
+3
1.8%
2-0
4.1%
3-1
1.9%
4-2
0.3%
5-3
<0%
+2
6.4%
1-0
8.5%
2-1
6%
3-2
1.4%
4-3
0.2%
5-4
<0%
+1
16.1%
26.4%
Draw
0-0
8.8%
1-1
12.4%
2-2
4.4%
3-3
0.7%
4-4
0.1%
0
26.4%
48.8%
Win probability
1.46
Expected goals
0-1
12.9%
1-2
9.1%
2-3
2.1%
3-4
0.3%
4-5
0%
-1
24.5%
0-2
9.5%
1-3
4.4%
2-4
0.8%
3-5
0.1%
-2
14.8%
0-3
4.6%
1-4
1.6%
2-5
0.2%
3-6
0%
-3
6.5%
0-4
1.7%
1-5
0.5%
2-6
0.1%
-4
2.2%
0-5
0.5%
1-6
0.1%
2-7
0%
-5
0.6%
0-6
0.1%
1-7
0%
-6
0.1%
0-7
0%
-7
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Comercial MS
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Jul. 2015 |
RIO
2 - 1
COM
56%
23%
21%
|
45 | 50 | 5 | 0 |
| 03 May. 2015 |
IVI
2 - 3
COM
61%
22%
17%
|
46 | 56 | 10 | -1 |
| 26 Apr. 2015 |
COM
0 - 0
IVI
28%
27%
45%
|
45 | 56 | 11 | +1 |
| 19 Apr. 2015 |
NAV
2 - 3
COM
65%
21%
14%
|
44 | 55 | 11 | +1 |
| 12 Apr. 2015 |
COM
1 - 1
NAV
25%
26%
49%
|
43 | 55 | 12 | +1 |
Matches
Aparecidense
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Jul. 2015 |
APA
0 - 1
CAL
45%
28%
26%
|
57 | 59 | 2 | 0 |
| 14 Jul. 2015 |
OPE
2 - 3
APA
27%
27%
46%
|
57 | 47 | 10 | 0 |
| 03 May. 2015 |
GOI
1 - 1
APA
73%
19%
8%
|
58 | 79 | 21 | -1 |
| 26 Apr. 2015 |
APA
0 - 2
GOI
18%
24%
59%
|
58 | 79 | 21 | 0 |
| 18 Apr. 2015 |
TRI
0 - 1
APA
36%
27%
38%
|
58 | 53 | 5 | 0 |