Colwyn Bay vs Caernarfon Town FC analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
35.7%
Win probability
1.44
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
+7
<0%
6-0
0.1%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.1%
5-0
0.3%
6-1
0.1%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.4%
4-0
0.9%
5-1
0.4%
6-2
0.1%
+4
1.4%
3-0
2.5%
4-1
1.4%
5-2
0.3%
6-3
<0%
+3
4.3%
2-0
5.3%
3-1
3.9%
4-2
1.1%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
10.4%
1-0
7.3%
2-1
8.1%
3-2
3%
4-3
0.6%
5-4
0.1%
+1
19%
24.3%
Draw
0-0
5%
1-1
11.2%
2-2
6.3%
3-3
1.5%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
24.3%
40%
Win probability
1.54
Expected goals
0-1
7.8%
1-2
8.7%
2-3
3.2%
3-4
0.6%
4-5
0.1%
-1
20.3%
0-2
6%
1-3
4.5%
2-4
1.2%
3-5
0.2%
4-6
0%
-2
11.9%
0-3
3.1%
1-4
1.7%
2-5
0.4%
3-6
0%
-3
5.2%
0-4
1.2%
1-5
0.5%
2-6
0.1%
3-7
0%
-4
1.8%
0-5
0.4%
1-6
0.1%
2-7
0%
-5
0.5%
0-6
0.1%
1-7
0%
-6
0.1%
0-7
0%
-7
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+16%
-3%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
11º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
14
9º
12º
12º
31
1º
8º
7º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
6º
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
1º
|
62 | 82 |
1º
|
100% | |
|
2º
|
47 | 59 |
2º
|
89.5% | |
|
3º
|
37 | 49 |
3º
|
33% | |
|
8º
|
28 | 48 |
4º
|
34% | |
|
5º
|
33 | 47 |
5º
|
25.5% | |
|
4º
|
34 | 46 |
6º
|
22% | |
|
|
6º
|
31 | 43 |
7º
|
21% | |
|
7º
|
28 | 42 |
8º
|
23% | |
|
9º
|
23 | 34 |
9º
|
37% | |
|
12º
|
13 | 33 |
10º
|
38.5% | |
|
10º
|
15 | 27 |
11º
|
48% | |
|
|
11º
|
14 | 25 |
12º
|
68.5% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Play-offs for the title
|
0% | 31.5% |
|
Relegation play-offs
|
100% | 68.5% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Colwyn Bay
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05 Aug. 2023 |
COL
5 - 0
AIR
74%
15%
11%
|
52 | 39 | 13 | 0 |
| 15 Apr. 2023 |
COL
1 - 1
LLA
57%
23%
21%
|
52 | 48 | 4 | 0 |
| 07 Apr. 2023 |
PEN
0 - 2
COL
4%
13%
83%
|
52 | 22 | 30 | 0 |
| 01 Apr. 2023 |
COL
3 - 0
PEN
89%
8%
2%
|
51 | 21 | 30 | +1 |
| 25 Mar. 2023 |
COL
1 - 3
HOL
48%
24%
28%
|
53 | 52 | 1 | -2 |
Matches
Caernarfon Town FC
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04 Aug. 2023 |
CAE
2 - 2
POR
88%
9%
4%
|
56 | 28 | 28 | 0 |
| 22 Apr. 2023 |
ABE
3 - 2
CAE
35%
25%
40%
|
57 | 53 | 4 | -1 |
| 19 Apr. 2023 |
FLI
2 - 3
CAE
39%
26%
36%
|
56 | 55 | 1 | +1 |
| 15 Apr. 2023 |
CAE
1 - 2
PON
63%
20%
17%
|
57 | 51 | 6 | -1 |
| 31 Mar. 2023 |
CAE
4 - 0
AIR
80%
14%
7%
|
57 | 36 | 21 | 0 |