Colwyn Bay vs Caernarfon Town FC analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
35.7%
Win probability
1.44
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
+7
<0%
6-0
0.1%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.1%
5-0
0.3%
6-1
0.1%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.4%
4-0
0.9%
5-1
0.4%
6-2
0.1%
+4
1.4%
3-0
2.5%
4-1
1.4%
5-2
0.3%
6-3
<0%
+3
4.3%
2-0
5.3%
3-1
3.9%
4-2
1.1%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
10.4%
1-0
7.3%
2-1
8.1%
3-2
3%
4-3
0.6%
5-4
0.1%
+1
19%
24.3%
Draw
0-0
5%
1-1
11.2%
2-2
6.3%
3-3
1.5%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
24.3%
40%
Win probability
1.54
Expected goals
0-1
7.8%
1-2
8.7%
2-3
3.2%
3-4
0.6%
4-5
0.1%
-1
20.3%
0-2
6%
1-3
4.5%
2-4
1.2%
3-5
0.2%
4-6
0%
-2
11.9%
0-3
3.1%
1-4
1.7%
2-5
0.4%
3-6
0%
-3
5.2%
0-4
1.2%
1-5
0.5%
2-6
0.1%
3-7
0%
-4
1.8%
0-5
0.4%
1-6
0.1%
2-7
0%
-5
0.5%
0-6
0.1%
1-7
0%
-6
0.1%
0-7
0%
-7
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+20%
-6%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
11º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
14
9º
12º
12º
31
1º
8º
7º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
6º
Expected position in the table
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
1º
|
62 | 82 |
1º
|
100% | |
|
2º
|
47 | 59 |
2º
|
89.5% | |
|
3º
|
37 | 49 |
3º
|
33% | |
|
8º
|
28 | 48 |
4º
|
34% | |
|
5º
|
33 | 47 |
5º
|
25.5% | |
|
4º
|
34 | 46 |
6º
|
22% | |
|
|
6º
|
31 | 43 |
7º
|
21% | |
|
7º
|
28 | 42 |
8º
|
23% | |
|
9º
|
23 | 34 |
9º
|
37% | |
|
12º
|
13 | 33 |
10º
|
38.5% | |
|
10º
|
15 | 27 |
11º
|
48% | |
|
|
11º
|
14 | 25 |
12º
|
68.5% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Play-offs for the title
|
0% | 31.5% |
|
Relegation play-offs
|
100% | 68.5% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Colwyn Bay
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05 Aug. 2023 |
COL
5 - 0
AIR
74%
15%
11%
|
52 | 40 | 12 | 0 |
| 15 Apr. 2023 |
COL
1 - 1
LLA
57%
23%
21%
|
52 | 49 | 3 | 0 |
| 07 Apr. 2023 |
PEN
0 - 2
COL
4%
13%
83%
|
52 | 22 | 30 | 0 |
| 01 Apr. 2023 |
COL
3 - 0
PEN
89%
8%
2%
|
51 | 22 | 29 | +1 |
| 25 Mar. 2023 |
COL
1 - 3
HOL
48%
24%
28%
|
53 | 52 | 1 | -2 |
Matches
Caernarfon Town FC
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04 Aug. 2023 |
CAE
2 - 2
POR
88%
9%
4%
|
57 | 29 | 28 | 0 |
| 22 Apr. 2023 |
ABE
3 - 2
CAE
35%
25%
40%
|
57 | 53 | 4 | 0 |
| 19 Apr. 2023 |
FLI
2 - 3
CAE
39%
26%
36%
|
57 | 56 | 1 | 0 |
| 15 Apr. 2023 |
CAE
1 - 2
PON
63%
20%
17%
|
57 | 52 | 5 | 0 |
| 31 Mar. 2023 |
CAE
4 - 0
AIR
80%
14%
7%
|
57 | 37 | 20 | 0 |