Colwyn Bay vs Aberystwyth Town analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
49.6%
Win probability
1.76
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.2%
7-1
0.1%
+6
0.3%
5-0
0.7%
6-1
0.3%
7-2
<0%
+5
1%
4-0
2%
5-1
0.9%
6-2
0.2%
7-3
<0%
+4
3%
3-0
4.5%
4-1
2.5%
5-2
0.5%
6-3
0.1%
+3
7.6%
2-0
7.7%
3-1
5.6%
4-2
1.5%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
15.1%
1-0
8.7%
2-1
9.6%
3-2
3.5%
4-3
0.6%
5-4
0.1%
+1
22.5%
23.4%
Draw
0-0
4.9%
1-1
10.8%
2-2
5.9%
3-3
1.4%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
23.4%
27%
Win probability
1.24
Expected goals
0-1
6.1%
1-2
6.7%
2-3
2.5%
3-4
0.5%
4-5
0%
-1
15.9%
0-2
3.8%
1-3
2.8%
2-4
0.8%
3-5
0.1%
4-6
0%
-2
7.5%
0-3
1.6%
1-4
0.9%
2-5
0.2%
3-6
0%
-3
2.7%
0-4
0.5%
1-5
0.2%
2-6
0%
-4
0.7%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.2%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+6%
-20%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
6º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
25
3º
6º
5º
27
2º
5º
4º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
4º
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
1º
|
49 | 21 |
1º
|
100% | |
|
2º
|
43 | 15 |
2º
|
100% | |
|
5º
|
25 | 12 |
3º
|
0% | |
|
|
4º
|
27 | 12 |
4º
|
0% | |
|
|
6º
|
25 | 11 |
5º
|
100% | |
|
3º
|
32 | 9 |
6º
|
100% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Play-offs
|
0% | 0% |
|
Mid-table
|
0% | 100% |
|
Relegation
|
100% | 0% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Colwyn Bay
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Mar. 2024 |
PEN
5 - 0
COL
68%
20%
13%
|
52 | 66 | 14 | 0 |
| 09 Mar. 2024 |
BAR
1 - 1
COL
53%
23%
24%
|
52 | 56 | 4 | 0 |
| 02 Mar. 2024 |
COL
0 - 0
HAV
30%
26%
44%
|
51 | 61 | 10 | +1 |
| 24 Feb. 2024 |
PON
4 - 0
COL
48%
24%
27%
|
53 | 56 | 3 | -2 |
| 17 Feb. 2024 |
CAR
3 - 2
COL
68%
19%
14%
|
53 | 66 | 13 | 0 |
Matches
Aberystwyth Town
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 Mar. 2024 |
HAV
2 - 0
ABE
60%
23%
17%
|
53 | 61 | 8 | 0 |
| 02 Mar. 2024 |
ABE
1 - 1
BAR
41%
25%
34%
|
52 | 56 | 4 | +1 |
| 23 Feb. 2024 |
PEN
1 - 1
ABE
71%
19%
11%
|
52 | 66 | 14 | 0 |
| 09 Feb. 2024 |
ABE
0 - 1
COL
47%
24%
29%
|
52 | 52 | 0 | 0 |
| 02 Feb. 2024 |
ABE
1 - 0
HAV
27%
26%
48%
|
51 | 62 | 11 | +1 |