Colchester United vs Derby County analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
53.4%
Win probability
1.79
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.3%
7-1
0.1%
+6
0.3%
5-0
0.8%
6-1
0.3%
7-2
<0%
+5
1.2%
4-0
2.4%
5-1
0.9%
6-2
0.2%
7-3
<0%
+4
3.5%
3-0
5.3%
4-1
2.6%
5-2
0.5%
6-3
0.1%
+3
8.5%
2-0
8.9%
3-1
5.8%
4-2
1.4%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
16.4%
1-0
9.9%
2-1
9.8%
3-2
3.2%
4-3
0.5%
5-4
0.1%
+1
23.5%
23.2%
Draw
0-0
5.5%
1-1
10.9%
2-2
5.4%
3-3
1.2%
4-4
0.1%
5-5
<0%
0
23.2%
23.4%
Win probability
1.1
Expected goals
0-1
6.1%
1-2
6%
2-3
2%
3-4
0.3%
4-5
0%
-1
14.5%
0-2
3.4%
1-3
2.2%
2-4
0.5%
3-5
0.1%
-2
6.2%
0-3
1.2%
1-4
0.6%
2-5
0.1%
3-6
0%
-3
2%
0-4
0.3%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.5%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Colchester United
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Jan. 2006 |
CHE
0 - 1
COL
34%
26%
40%
|
69 | 59 | 10 | 0 |
| 21 Jan. 2006 |
COL
2 - 1
POR
67%
20%
13%
|
69 | 57 | 12 | 0 |
| 17 Jan. 2006 |
COL
3 - 2
BRI
62%
22%
17%
|
69 | 58 | 11 | 0 |
| 14 Jan. 2006 |
WAL
0 - 2
COL
38%
27%
35%
|
68 | 60 | 8 | +1 |
| 07 Jan. 2006 |
SHE
1 - 2
COL
65%
21%
14%
|
67 | 77 | 10 | +1 |
Matches
Derby County
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 Jan. 2006 |
COV
6 - 1
DER
45%
26%
29%
|
68 | 66 | 2 | 0 |
| 14 Jan. 2006 |
DER
5 - 1
CRE
68%
19%
14%
|
68 | 56 | 12 | 0 |
| 07 Jan. 2006 |
DER
2 - 1
BUR
55%
23%
22%
|
67 | 69 | 2 | +1 |
| 02 Jan. 2006 |
MIL
2 - 1
DER
41%
28%
31%
|
68 | 66 | 2 | -1 |
| 31 Dec. 2005 |
DER
2 - 2
REA
40%
27%
32%
|
67 | 79 | 12 | +1 |