Copa del Rey 1/16
Global 5-3
Castellón vs Real Murcia analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
53%
Win probability
2.15
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
9-1
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.2%
6-0
0.4%
7-1
0.2%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.6%
5-0
1%
6-1
0.5%
7-2
0.1%
8-3
<0%
+5
1.7%
4-0
2.4%
5-1
1.5%
6-2
0.4%
7-3
0.1%
+4
4.3%
3-0
4.4%
4-1
3.5%
5-2
1.1%
6-3
0.2%
7-4
<0%
+3
9.2%
2-0
6.2%
3-1
6.5%
4-2
2.6%
5-3
0.5%
6-4
0.1%
+2
15.9%
1-0
5.7%
2-1
9.1%
3-2
4.8%
4-3
1.3%
5-4
0.2%
6-5
<0%
+1
21.1%
20.7%
Draw
0-0
2.7%
1-1
8.5%
2-2
6.7%
3-3
2.4%
4-4
0.5%
5-5
0.1%
0
20.7%
26.3%
Win probability
1.47
Expected goals
0-1
3.9%
1-2
6.2%
2-3
3.3%
3-4
0.9%
4-5
0.1%
5-6
0%
-1
14.5%
0-2
2.9%
1-3
3.1%
2-4
1.2%
3-5
0.3%
4-6
0%
-2
7.5%
0-3
1.4%
1-4
1.1%
2-5
0.4%
3-6
0.1%
-3
3%
0-4
0.5%
1-5
0.3%
2-6
0.1%
3-7
0%
-4
1%
0-5
0.2%
1-6
0.1%
2-7
0%
-5
0.3%
0-6
0%
1-7
0%
-6
0.1%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Castellón
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03 Apr. 1932 |
CAS
3 - 0
SPO
44%
22%
34%
|
63 | 69 | 6 | 0 |
| 27 Mar. 1932 |
CAS
2 - 0
EUR
63%
19%
18%
|
62 | 61 | 1 | +1 |
| 20 Mar. 1932 |
CAS
2 - 0
SEV
52%
22%
26%
|
61 | 67 | 6 | +1 |
| 13 Mar. 1932 |
MUR
3 - 1
CAS
71%
16%
13%
|
62 | 65 | 3 | -1 |
| 06 Mar. 1932 |
CAS
2 - 0
OVI
49%
21%
29%
|
61 | 66 | 5 | +1 |
Matches
Real Murcia
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03 Apr. 1932 |
OVI
6 - 0
MUR
56%
20%
24%
|
66 | 65 | 1 | 0 |
| 27 Mar. 1932 |
MUR
4 - 0
ATM
46%
21%
33%
|
65 | 70 | 5 | +1 |
| 20 Mar. 1932 |
DEP
2 - 1
MUR
55%
21%
24%
|
65 | 62 | 3 | 0 |
| 13 Mar. 1932 |
MUR
3 - 1
CAS
71%
16%
13%
|
65 | 62 | 3 | 0 |
| 06 Mar. 1932 |
SEV
0 - 1
MUR
59%
19%
22%
|
64 | 68 | 4 | +1 |