Conmebol Sudamericana Final
Global 4-3
Cienciano vs River Plate analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
34.5%
Win probability
1.49
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
+7
<0%
6-0
0.1%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.1%
5-0
0.3%
6-1
0.1%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.4%
4-0
0.9%
5-1
0.4%
6-2
0.1%
7-3
<0%
+4
1.4%
3-0
2.4%
4-1
1.5%
5-2
0.4%
6-3
0.1%
+3
4.2%
2-0
4.7%
3-1
3.9%
4-2
1.2%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
10.1%
1-0
6.3%
2-1
7.9%
3-2
3.3%
4-3
0.7%
5-4
0.1%
+1
18.2%
23.5%
Draw
0-0
4.2%
1-1
10.6%
2-2
6.6%
3-3
1.8%
4-4
0.3%
5-5
<0%
0
23.5%
42%
Win probability
1.67
Expected goals
0-1
7.1%
1-2
8.8%
2-3
3.7%
3-4
0.8%
4-5
0.1%
-1
20.4%
0-2
5.9%
1-3
4.9%
2-4
1.5%
3-5
0.3%
4-6
0%
-2
12.6%
0-3
3.3%
1-4
2%
2-5
0.5%
3-6
0.1%
-3
5.9%
0-4
1.4%
1-5
0.7%
2-6
0.1%
3-7
0%
-4
2.2%
0-5
0.5%
1-6
0.2%
2-7
0%
-5
0.7%
0-6
0.1%
1-7
0%
-6
0.2%
0-7
0%
-7
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Cienciano
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Dec. 2003 |
RIV
3 - 3
CIE
76%
14%
10%
|
76 | 83 | 7 | 0 |
| 04 Dec. 2003 |
CIE
1 - 0
NAC
55%
23%
22%
|
75 | 79 | 4 | +1 |
| 13 Nov. 2003 |
NAC
1 - 2
CIE
61%
21%
19%
|
75 | 80 | 5 | 0 |
| 05 Nov. 2003 |
ALI
4 - 1
CIE
44%
25%
31%
|
75 | 75 | 0 | 0 |
| 02 Nov. 2003 |
CIE
3 - 4
SPC
48%
25%
27%
|
76 | 78 | 2 | -1 |
Matches
River Plate
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Dec. 2003 |
RAF
1 - 2
RIV
19%
24%
57%
|
83 | 64 | 19 | 0 |
| 10 Dec. 2003 |
RIV
3 - 3
CIE
76%
14%
10%
|
83 | 76 | 7 | 0 |
| 07 Dec. 2003 |
RIV
1 - 1
TAL
69%
18%
13%
|
83 | 71 | 12 | 0 |
| 03 Dec. 2003 |
SAO
2 - 0
RIV
58%
22%
21%
|
83 | 85 | 2 | 0 |
| 30 Nov. 2003 |
LAN
2 - 0
RIV
28%
25%
47%
|
84 | 75 | 9 | -1 |