Aurora vs Bolívar analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
48.8%
Win probability
1.52
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
+7
<0%
6-0
0.1%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.2%
5-0
0.5%
6-1
0.1%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.7%
4-0
1.8%
5-1
0.5%
6-2
0.1%
+4
2.4%
3-0
4.6%
4-1
1.8%
5-2
0.3%
6-3
<0%
+3
6.7%
2-0
9.1%
3-1
4.7%
4-2
0.9%
5-3
0.1%
+2
14.8%
1-0
11.9%
2-1
9.3%
3-2
2.4%
4-3
0.3%
5-4
<0%
+1
24%
25.7%
Draw
0-0
7.9%
1-1
12.2%
2-2
4.8%
3-3
0.8%
4-4
0.1%
0
25.7%
25.5%
Win probability
1.02
Expected goals
0-1
8%
1-2
6.3%
2-3
1.6%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
16.1%
0-2
4.1%
1-3
2.1%
2-4
0.4%
3-5
0%
-2
6.7%
0-3
1.4%
1-4
0.5%
2-5
0.1%
-3
2%
0-4
0.4%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.5%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+12%
+45%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Aurora
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 Jan. 2012 |
BLO
2 - 0
AUR
37%
26%
37%
|
71 | 65 | 6 | 0 |
| 08 Dec. 2011 |
AUR
0 - 2
SAN
50%
25%
25%
|
72 | 70 | 2 | -1 |
| 04 Dec. 2011 |
SAN
1 - 0
AUR
43%
25%
32%
|
73 | 70 | 3 | -1 |
| 01 Dec. 2011 |
AUR
3 - 1
REA
75%
17%
9%
|
73 | 53 | 20 | 0 |
| 27 Nov. 2011 |
OPE
2 - 1
AUR
49%
24%
27%
|
73 | 74 | 1 | 0 |
Matches
Bolívar
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08 Dec. 2011 |
STR
4 - 0
BOL
47%
25%
29%
|
73 | 68 | 5 | 0 |
| 04 Dec. 2011 |
BOL
1 - 0
STR
56%
23%
21%
|
73 | 68 | 5 | 0 |
| 01 Dec. 2011 |
GUA
1 - 0
BOL
25%
27%
49%
|
73 | 60 | 13 | 0 |
| 27 Nov. 2011 |
RPO
1 - 3
BOL
51%
24%
25%
|
73 | 71 | 2 | 0 |
| 24 Nov. 2011 |
BOL
0 - 0
SAN
56%
23%
21%
|
73 | 68 | 5 | 0 |