Choco vs Negreira analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
60.8%
Win probability
1.78
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.3%
7-1
0.1%
+6
0.4%
5-0
1.1%
6-1
0.3%
7-2
<0%
+5
1.4%
4-0
3.2%
5-1
0.9%
6-2
0.1%
+4
4.2%
3-0
7.2%
4-1
2.5%
5-2
0.4%
6-3
<0%
+3
10.1%
2-0
12.1%
3-1
5.7%
4-2
1%
5-3
0.1%
+2
18.9%
1-0
13.5%
2-1
9.6%
3-2
2.3%
4-3
0.3%
5-4
<0%
+1
25.7%
22.9%
Draw
0-0
7.6%
1-1
10.8%
2-2
3.8%
3-3
0.6%
4-4
0.1%
0
22.8%
16.3%
Win probability
0.8
Expected goals
0-1
6%
1-2
4.3%
2-3
1%
3-4
0.1%
-1
11.5%
0-2
2.4%
1-3
1.1%
2-4
0.2%
3-5
0%
-2
3.8%
0-3
0.6%
1-4
0.2%
2-5
0%
-3
0.9%
0-4
0.1%
1-5
0%
-4
0.2%
0-5
0%
-5
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Choco
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05 Jan. 2014 |
PON
2 - 0
CHO
62%
21%
17%
|
28 | 33 | 5 | 0 |
| 22 Dec. 2013 |
BAR
2 - 1
CHO
40%
26%
35%
|
29 | 27 | 2 | -1 |
| 15 Dec. 2013 |
CHO
4 - 1
DEP
39%
25%
36%
|
28 | 30 | 2 | +1 |
| 11 Dec. 2013 |
BOU
0 - 2
CHO
42%
26%
32%
|
27 | 26 | 1 | +1 |
| 01 Dec. 2013 |
CHO
3 - 2
ALO
44%
26%
30%
|
26 | 27 | 1 | +1 |
Matches
Negreira
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05 Jan. 2014 |
NEG
1 - 0
CDD
51%
24%
25%
|
24 | 24 | 0 | 0 |
| 22 Dec. 2013 |
NEG
0 - 2
SOM
35%
25%
40%
|
25 | 29 | 4 | -1 |
| 15 Dec. 2013 |
BOI
4 - 0
NEG
64%
22%
14%
|
26 | 30 | 4 | -1 |
| 11 Dec. 2013 |
NEG
3 - 1
ORD
35%
26%
39%
|
24 | 30 | 6 | +2 |
| 01 Dec. 2013 |
NEG
0 - 1
CER
35%
26%
38%
|
25 | 32 | 7 | -1 |