Cherno More Varna vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
67.6%
Win probability
1.94
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.2%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.2%
6-0
0.5%
7-1
0.1%
+6
0.6%
5-0
1.7%
6-1
0.4%
7-2
<0%
+5
2.1%
4-0
4.4%
5-1
1.1%
6-2
0.1%
+4
5.6%
3-0
9%
4-1
2.9%
5-2
0.4%
6-3
<0%
+3
12.3%
2-0
13.9%
3-1
6%
4-2
1%
5-3
0.1%
+2
20.9%
1-0
14.3%
2-1
9.3%
3-2
2%
4-3
0.2%
5-4
<0%
+1
25.8%
20.5%
Draw
0-0
7.4%
1-1
9.5%
2-2
3.1%
3-3
0.4%
4-4
<0%
0
20.5%
11.9%
Win probability
0.67
Expected goals
0-1
4.9%
1-2
3.2%
2-3
0.7%
3-4
0.1%
-1
8.9%
0-2
1.6%
1-3
0.7%
2-4
0.1%
-2
2.5%
0-3
0.4%
1-4
0.1%
2-5
0%
-3
0.5%
0-4
0.1%
1-5
0%
-4
0.1%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+8%
-23%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
3º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
40
3º
8º
4º
17
6º
13º
12º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
13º
Expected position in the table
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
1º
|
53 | 76 |
1º
|
99.5% | |
|
2º
|
40 | 58 |
2º
|
40% | |
|
4º
|
40 | 58 |
3º
|
30.5% | |
|
|
3º
|
40 | 57 |
4º
|
35% | |
|
5º
|
35 | 52 |
5º
|
48% | |
|
6º
|
32 | 46 |
6º
|
34% | |
|
7º
|
30 | 42 |
7º
|
16.5% | |
|
9º
|
26 | 41 |
8º
|
20.5% | |
|
8º
|
26 | 40 |
9º
|
21% | |
|
10º
|
21 | 38 |
10º
|
30.5% | |
|
11º
|
20 | 32 |
11º
|
31% | |
|
|
13º
|
17 | 31 |
12º
|
29.5% | |
|
12º
|
20 | 31 |
13º
|
36.5% | |
|
14º
|
14 | 23 |
14º
|
32% | |
|
15º
|
13 | 22 |
15º
|
42% | |
|
16º
|
9 | 17 |
16º
|
77.5% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Play-offs for the title
|
87% | 0% |
|
Next round
|
13% | 2.5% |
|
Relegation play-offs
|
0% | 97.5% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Cherno More Varna
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 Feb. 2025 |
CVA
2 - 1
DUN
76%
16%
8%
|
78 | 55 | 23 | 0 |
| 29 Jan. 2025 |
CVA
4 - 0
LUD
79%
15%
6%
|
78 | 54 | 24 | 0 |
| 29 Jan. 2025 |
CVA
4 - 1
CSK
82%
13%
5%
|
78 | 53 | 25 | 0 |
| 18 Jan. 2025 |
DOB
0 - 1
CVA
19%
24%
57%
|
78 | 60 | 18 | 0 |
| 11 Jan. 2025 |
SFC
2 - 1
CVA
59%
22%
19%
|
78 | 78 | 0 | 0 |
Matches
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 Jan. 2025 |
LPL
0 - 2
ARK
17%
21%
62%
|
63 | 83 | 20 | 0 |
| 25 Jan. 2025 |
LPL
2 - 0
TOR
35%
25%
40%
|
63 | 64 | 1 | 0 |
| 21 Jan. 2025 |
RAD
2 - 1
LPL
64%
20%
16%
|
63 | 74 | 11 | 0 |
| 13 Dec. 2024 |
BER
2 - 0
LPL
38%
25%
38%
|
64 | 65 | 1 | -1 |
| 07 Dec. 2024 |
LPL
1 - 2
BER
44%
27%
29%
|
65 | 64 | 1 | -1 |