Chelsea vs Derby County analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
42.7%
Win probability
1.45
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
+7
<0%
6-0
0.1%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.1%
5-0
0.4%
6-1
0.1%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.5%
4-0
1.3%
5-1
0.5%
6-2
0.1%
+4
1.8%
3-0
3.6%
4-1
1.6%
5-2
0.3%
6-3
<0%
+3
5.4%
2-0
7.4%
3-1
4.3%
4-2
0.9%
5-3
0.1%
+2
12.7%
1-0
10.2%
2-1
8.9%
3-2
2.6%
4-3
0.4%
5-4
<0%
+1
22.1%
25.8%
Draw
0-0
7%
1-1
12.3%
2-2
5.4%
3-3
1%
4-4
0.1%
0
25.8%
31.4%
Win probability
1.21
Expected goals
0-1
8.5%
1-2
7.4%
2-3
2.2%
3-4
0.3%
4-5
0%
-1
18.4%
0-2
5.1%
1-3
3%
2-4
0.7%
3-5
0.1%
-2
8.8%
0-3
2.1%
1-4
0.9%
2-5
0.2%
3-6
0%
-3
3.1%
0-4
0.6%
1-5
0.2%
2-6
0%
-4
0.9%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.2%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Chelsea
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 Mar. 1979 |
NTT
6 - 0
CHL
78%
15%
7%
|
75 | 90 | 15 | 0 |
| 24 Mar. 1979 |
CHL
1 - 2
WOL
47%
25%
28%
|
75 | 81 | 6 | 0 |
| 17 Mar. 1979 |
CHL
1 - 3
QPR
49%
25%
26%
|
76 | 81 | 5 | -1 |
| 14 Mar. 1979 |
WBA
1 - 0
CHL
75%
16%
9%
|
76 | 88 | 12 | 0 |
| 10 Mar. 1979 |
NOR
2 - 0
CHL
62%
21%
17%
|
76 | 83 | 7 | 0 |
Matches
Derby County
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 Mar. 1979 |
QPR
2 - 2
DER
48%
26%
27%
|
83 | 81 | 2 | 0 |
| 26 Mar. 1979 |
WBA
2 - 1
DER
68%
20%
13%
|
83 | 88 | 5 | 0 |
| 24 Mar. 1979 |
DER
0 - 0
EVE
40%
26%
34%
|
83 | 88 | 5 | 0 |
| 21 Mar. 1979 |
DER
3 - 0
BOL
65%
20%
15%
|
82 | 78 | 4 | +1 |
| 13 Mar. 1979 |
MID
3 - 1
DER
49%
27%
25%
|
83 | 83 | 0 | -1 |