Chelsea vs Derby County analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
43.6%
Win probability
1.49
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
+7
<0%
6-0
0.1%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.1%
5-0
0.4%
6-1
0.1%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.5%
4-0
1.4%
5-1
0.5%
6-2
0.1%
+4
1.9%
3-0
3.7%
4-1
1.7%
5-2
0.3%
6-3
<0%
+3
5.7%
2-0
7.4%
3-1
4.5%
4-2
1%
5-3
0.1%
+2
13%
1-0
10%
2-1
9%
3-2
2.7%
4-3
0.4%
5-4
<0%
+1
22.2%
25.5%
Draw
0-0
6.7%
1-1
12.1%
2-2
5.5%
3-3
1.1%
4-4
0.1%
0
25.5%
30.9%
Win probability
1.21
Expected goals
0-1
8.2%
1-2
7.3%
2-3
2.2%
3-4
0.3%
4-5
0%
-1
18.1%
0-2
4.9%
1-3
3%
2-4
0.7%
3-5
0.1%
-2
8.6%
0-3
2%
1-4
0.9%
2-5
0.2%
3-6
0%
-3
3.1%
0-4
0.6%
1-5
0.2%
2-6
0%
-4
0.9%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.2%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+1%
-13%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Chelsea
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03 Sep. 1977 |
IPS
1 - 0
CHL
71%
18%
11%
|
78 | 88 | 10 | 0 |
| 27 Aug. 1977 |
CHL
1 - 2
COV
52%
24%
23%
|
78 | 82 | 4 | 0 |
| 24 Aug. 1977 |
CHL
2 - 0
BIR
47%
24%
29%
|
78 | 82 | 4 | 0 |
| 20 Aug. 1977 |
WBA
3 - 0
CHL
60%
22%
18%
|
78 | 83 | 5 | 0 |
| 14 May. 1977 |
CHL
4 - 0
HUL
72%
18%
11%
|
77 | 67 | 10 | +1 |
Matches
Derby County
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03 Sep. 1977 |
DER
0 - 1
MUD
45%
24%
31%
|
85 | 88 | 3 | 0 |
| 27 Aug. 1977 |
NTT
3 - 0
DER
42%
26%
32%
|
85 | 78 | 7 | 0 |
| 24 Aug. 1977 |
DER
0 - 0
IPS
52%
24%
24%
|
85 | 88 | 3 | 0 |
| 20 Aug. 1977 |
COV
3 - 1
DER
45%
26%
29%
|
86 | 82 | 4 | -1 |
| 14 May. 1977 |
DER
0 - 0
IPS
52%
24%
24%
|
85 | 88 | 3 | +1 |