Chelsea vs Derby County analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
42.3%
Win probability
1.65
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
+7
<0%
6-0
0.1%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.2%
5-0
0.5%
6-1
0.2%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.7%
4-0
1.4%
5-1
0.7%
6-2
0.1%
7-3
<0%
+4
2.2%
3-0
3.3%
4-1
2%
5-2
0.5%
6-3
0.1%
+3
5.9%
2-0
6.1%
3-1
4.9%
4-2
1.5%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
12.7%
1-0
7.4%
2-1
8.9%
3-2
3.6%
4-3
0.7%
5-4
0.1%
+1
20.6%
23.7%
Draw
0-0
4.5%
1-1
10.7%
2-2
6.5%
3-3
1.7%
4-4
0.3%
5-5
<0%
0
23.7%
34%
Win probability
1.46
Expected goals
0-1
6.5%
1-2
7.8%
2-3
3.1%
3-4
0.6%
4-5
0.1%
-1
18.2%
0-2
4.7%
1-3
3.8%
2-4
1.1%
3-5
0.2%
4-6
0%
-2
9.9%
0-3
2.3%
1-4
1.4%
2-5
0.3%
3-6
0%
-3
4.1%
0-4
0.8%
1-5
0.4%
2-6
0.1%
-4
1.3%
0-5
0.2%
1-6
0.1%
2-7
0%
-5
0.4%
0-6
0.1%
1-7
0%
-6
0.1%
0-7
0%
-7
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+4%
+6%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Chelsea
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 Sep. 1951 |
OPA
1 - 0
CHL
71%
16%
12%
|
75 | 85 | 10 | 0 |
| 29 Aug. 1951 |
ARS
2 - 1
CHL
75%
14%
10%
|
75 | 85 | 10 | 0 |
| 25 Aug. 1951 |
CHL
1 - 3
LIV
47%
24%
29%
|
75 | 81 | 6 | 0 |
| 22 Aug. 1951 |
CHL
1 - 3
ARS
45%
24%
31%
|
76 | 85 | 9 | -1 |
| 18 Aug. 1951 |
BPO
1 - 2
CHL
60%
22%
19%
|
75 | 84 | 9 | +1 |
Matches
Derby County
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 Sep. 1951 |
DER
4 - 2
STO
70%
16%
14%
|
81 | 76 | 5 | 0 |
| 29 Aug. 1951 |
DER
1 - 3
WOL
61%
19%
20%
|
81 | 83 | 2 | 0 |
| 25 Aug. 1951 |
ASV
4 - 1
DER
55%
21%
25%
|
82 | 80 | 2 | -1 |
| 22 Aug. 1951 |
WOL
1 - 2
DER
63%
19%
19%
|
81 | 83 | 2 | +1 |
| 18 Aug. 1951 |
DER
3 - 4
SUN
62%
18%
20%
|
81 | 81 | 0 | 0 |