Chelsea vs Derby County analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
45.4%
Win probability
1.82
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
<0%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.2%
7-1
0.1%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.3%
5-0
0.6%
6-1
0.3%
7-2
0.1%
+5
0.9%
4-0
1.7%
5-1
0.9%
6-2
0.2%
7-3
<0%
+4
2.8%
3-0
3.6%
4-1
2.5%
5-2
0.7%
6-3
0.1%
7-4
<0%
+3
6.9%
2-0
6%
3-1
5.5%
4-2
1.9%
5-3
0.3%
6-4
<0%
+2
13.7%
1-0
6.6%
2-1
9%
3-2
4.1%
4-3
0.9%
5-4
0.1%
6-5
<0%
+1
20.7%
22.6%
Draw
0-0
3.6%
1-1
9.8%
2-2
6.7%
3-3
2.1%
4-4
0.4%
5-5
<0%
0
22.6%
32%
Win probability
1.5
Expected goals
0-1
5.4%
1-2
7.4%
2-3
3.4%
3-4
0.8%
4-5
0.1%
-1
17%
0-2
4.1%
1-3
3.7%
2-4
1.3%
3-5
0.2%
4-6
0%
-2
9.3%
0-3
2%
1-4
1.4%
2-5
0.4%
3-6
0.1%
-3
3.9%
0-4
0.8%
1-5
0.4%
2-6
0.1%
3-7
0%
-4
1.3%
0-5
0.2%
1-6
0.1%
2-7
0%
-5
0.4%
0-6
0.1%
1-7
0%
-6
0.1%
0-7
0%
-7
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+6%
+1%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Chelsea
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 Aug. 1947 |
CHL
1 - 0
BBU
65%
18%
17%
|
76 | 73 | 3 | 0 |
| 23 Aug. 1947 |
BPO
3 - 0
CHL
64%
18%
18%
|
76 | 80 | 4 | 0 |
| 26 May. 1947 |
CHL
0 - 3
OPA
55%
22%
24%
|
78 | 80 | 2 | -2 |
| 10 May. 1947 |
CHL
2 - 0
MID
49%
22%
29%
|
77 | 81 | 4 | +1 |
| 03 May. 1947 |
CHL
1 - 4
SHE
57%
20%
23%
|
78 | 79 | 1 | -1 |
Matches
Derby County
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 Aug. 1947 |
BUR
0 - 2
DER
28%
23%
49%
|
81 | 73 | 8 | 0 |
| 23 Aug. 1947 |
DER
0 - 0
HUR
65%
18%
17%
|
81 | 77 | 4 | 0 |
| 31 May. 1947 |
OPA
1 - 2
DER
50%
22%
28%
|
81 | 81 | 0 | 0 |
| 26 May. 1947 |
PNE
1 - 1
DER
54%
21%
25%
|
81 | 82 | 1 | 0 |
| 17 May. 1947 |
DER
1 - 2
SHE
61%
20%
20%
|
81 | 79 | 2 | 0 |