Chelsea vs Derby County analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
45.5%
Win probability
1.85
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
<0%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.2%
7-1
0.1%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.3%
5-0
0.6%
6-1
0.3%
7-2
0.1%
+5
1%
4-0
1.7%
5-1
0.9%
6-2
0.2%
7-3
<0%
+4
2.9%
3-0
3.6%
4-1
2.5%
5-2
0.7%
6-3
0.1%
7-4
<0%
+3
7%
2-0
5.9%
3-1
5.5%
4-2
1.9%
5-3
0.4%
6-4
<0%
+2
13.7%
1-0
6.4%
2-1
8.9%
3-2
4.2%
4-3
1%
5-4
0.1%
6-5
<0%
+1
20.6%
22.5%
Draw
0-0
3.5%
1-1
9.7%
2-2
6.8%
3-3
2.1%
4-4
0.4%
5-5
<0%
0
22.5%
32%
Win probability
1.52
Expected goals
0-1
5.3%
1-2
7.4%
2-3
3.4%
3-4
0.8%
4-5
0.1%
5-6
0%
-1
17%
0-2
4%
1-3
3.7%
2-4
1.3%
3-5
0.2%
4-6
0%
-2
9.3%
0-3
2%
1-4
1.4%
2-5
0.4%
3-6
0.1%
-3
3.9%
0-4
0.8%
1-5
0.4%
2-6
0.1%
3-7
0%
-4
1.3%
0-5
0.2%
1-6
0.1%
2-7
0%
-5
0.4%
0-6
0.1%
1-7
0%
-6
0.1%
0-7
0%
-7
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+4%
+6%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Chelsea
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04 Apr. 1947 |
CHL
0 - 2
BBU
67%
17%
16%
|
77 | 74 | 3 | 0 |
| 29 Mar. 1947 |
ASV
2 - 0
CHL
64%
19%
17%
|
78 | 81 | 3 | -1 |
| 22 Mar. 1947 |
CHL
2 - 1
SUN
53%
21%
27%
|
78 | 79 | 1 | 0 |
| 15 Mar. 1947 |
BRE
0 - 2
CHL
52%
21%
27%
|
77 | 75 | 2 | +1 |
| 08 Mar. 1947 |
CHL
1 - 4
BPO
54%
21%
25%
|
78 | 79 | 1 | -1 |
Matches
Derby County
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 Mar. 1947 |
DER
1 - 3
BOL
68%
17%
15%
|
82 | 79 | 3 | 0 |
| 22 Mar. 1947 |
LIV
1 - 1
DER
60%
19%
21%
|
82 | 83 | 1 | 0 |
| 15 Mar. 1947 |
DER
4 - 3
MUD
61%
19%
20%
|
82 | 81 | 1 | 0 |
| 01 Mar. 1947 |
DER
2 - 1
BRE
67%
18%
15%
|
82 | 76 | 6 | 0 |
| 22 Feb. 1947 |
MID
1 - 0
DER
66%
17%
17%
|
82 | 84 | 2 | 0 |