Chelsea vs Derby County analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
47.4%
Win probability
1.77
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
<0%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.2%
7-1
0.1%
+6
0.3%
5-0
0.6%
6-1
0.3%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.9%
4-0
1.8%
5-1
0.9%
6-2
0.2%
7-3
<0%
+4
2.9%
3-0
4.1%
4-1
2.4%
5-2
0.6%
6-3
0.1%
+3
7.2%
2-0
7%
3-1
5.5%
4-2
1.6%
5-3
0.3%
6-4
<0%
+2
14.4%
1-0
7.9%
2-1
9.3%
3-2
3.7%
4-3
0.7%
5-4
0.1%
+1
21.7%
23.3%
Draw
0-0
4.5%
1-1
10.6%
2-2
6.3%
3-3
1.7%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
23.3%
29.3%
Win probability
1.34
Expected goals
0-1
6%
1-2
7.1%
2-3
2.8%
3-4
0.6%
4-5
0.1%
-1
16.5%
0-2
4%
1-3
3.2%
2-4
0.9%
3-5
0.1%
4-6
0%
-2
8.3%
0-3
1.8%
1-4
1.1%
2-5
0.3%
3-6
0%
-3
3.2%
0-4
0.6%
1-5
0.3%
2-6
0.1%
-4
0.9%
0-5
0.2%
1-6
0.1%
2-7
0%
-5
0.2%
0-6
0%
1-7
0%
-6
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+4%
+6%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Chelsea
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 Dec. 1934 |
ASV
0 - 3
CHL
73%
15%
12%
|
78 | 82 | 4 | 0 |
| 25 Dec. 1934 |
CHL
2 - 0
ASV
40%
23%
37%
|
77 | 83 | 6 | +1 |
| 22 Dec. 1934 |
CHL
2 - 1
MID
51%
22%
27%
|
76 | 77 | 1 | +1 |
| 15 Dec. 1934 |
MAC
2 - 0
CHL
70%
17%
14%
|
77 | 83 | 6 | -1 |
| 08 Dec. 1934 |
CHL
4 - 1
LIV
43%
23%
34%
|
76 | 80 | 4 | +1 |
Matches
Derby County
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 Dec. 1934 |
DER
2 - 0
WOL
63%
18%
18%
|
82 | 79 | 3 | 0 |
| 25 Dec. 1934 |
WOL
5 - 1
DER
57%
20%
23%
|
83 | 78 | 5 | -1 |
| 22 Dec. 1934 |
DER
3 - 1
ARS
47%
23%
31%
|
82 | 89 | 7 | +1 |
| 15 Dec. 1934 |
BBU
2 - 5
DER
56%
21%
23%
|
82 | 78 | 4 | 0 |
| 08 Dec. 1934 |
DER
9 - 3
WBA
55%
21%
24%
|
81 | 83 | 2 | +1 |