Chelsea vs Derby County analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
36.2%
Win probability
1.47
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
+7
<0%
6-0
0.1%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.1%
5-0
0.3%
6-1
0.1%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.4%
4-0
1%
5-1
0.4%
6-2
0.1%
+4
1.5%
3-0
2.6%
4-1
1.5%
5-2
0.3%
6-3
<0%
+3
4.4%
2-0
5.3%
3-1
4%
4-2
1.1%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
10.6%
1-0
7.2%
2-1
8.2%
3-2
3.1%
4-3
0.6%
5-4
0.1%
+1
19.1%
24.2%
Draw
0-0
4.9%
1-1
11.1%
2-2
6.3%
3-3
1.6%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
24.2%
39.5%
Win probability
1.55
Expected goals
0-1
7.6%
1-2
8.6%
2-3
3.3%
3-4
0.6%
4-5
0.1%
-1
20.1%
0-2
5.9%
1-3
4.4%
2-4
1.3%
3-5
0.2%
4-6
0%
-2
11.8%
0-3
3%
1-4
1.7%
2-5
0.4%
3-6
0%
-3
5.2%
0-4
1.2%
1-5
0.5%
2-6
0.1%
3-7
0%
-4
1.8%
0-5
0.4%
1-6
0.1%
2-7
0%
-5
0.5%
0-6
0.1%
1-7
0%
-6
0.1%
0-7
0%
-7
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+3%
+6%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Chelsea
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 Oct. 1931 |
OPA
1 - 0
CHL
62%
21%
17%
|
74 | 80 | 6 | 0 |
| 24 Oct. 1931 |
CHL
1 - 2
BBU
39%
24%
37%
|
74 | 79 | 5 | 0 |
| 17 Oct. 1931 |
SUN
2 - 1
CHL
75%
15%
10%
|
74 | 81 | 7 | 0 |
| 10 Oct. 1931 |
GRI
1 - 2
CHL
67%
18%
15%
|
74 | 77 | 3 | 0 |
| 03 Oct. 1931 |
CHL
2 - 0
LIV
37%
24%
38%
|
73 | 81 | 8 | +1 |
Matches
Derby County
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 Oct. 1931 |
DER
5 - 1
WHU
65%
18%
17%
|
81 | 76 | 5 | 0 |
| 24 Oct. 1931 |
SHW
3 - 1
DER
68%
17%
15%
|
81 | 85 | 4 | 0 |
| 17 Oct. 1931 |
DER
1 - 1
LEI
64%
19%
18%
|
81 | 80 | 1 | 0 |
| 10 Oct. 1931 |
DER
2 - 1
BIR
65%
18%
16%
|
81 | 80 | 1 | 0 |
| 03 Oct. 1931 |
WBA
4 - 0
DER
47%
23%
30%
|
81 | 78 | 3 | 0 |