Chelsea vs Derby County analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
35.2%
Win probability
1.43
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
+7
<0%
6-0
0.1%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.1%
5-0
0.3%
6-1
0.1%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.4%
4-0
0.9%
5-1
0.4%
6-2
0.1%
+4
1.4%
3-0
2.5%
4-1
1.4%
5-2
0.3%
6-3
<0%
+3
4.2%
2-0
5.2%
3-1
3.8%
4-2
1.1%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
10.3%
1-0
7.2%
2-1
8.1%
3-2
3%
4-3
0.6%
5-4
0.1%
+1
18.9%
24.3%
Draw
0-0
5.1%
1-1
11.2%
2-2
6.2%
3-3
1.5%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
24.3%
40.5%
Win probability
1.55
Expected goals
0-1
7.8%
1-2
8.7%
2-3
3.2%
3-4
0.6%
4-5
0.1%
-1
20.5%
0-2
6.1%
1-3
4.5%
2-4
1.3%
3-5
0.2%
4-6
0%
-2
12.1%
0-3
3.1%
1-4
1.8%
2-5
0.4%
3-6
0%
-3
5.3%
0-4
1.2%
1-5
0.5%
2-6
0.1%
3-7
0%
-4
1.9%
0-5
0.4%
1-6
0.1%
2-7
0%
-5
0.5%
0-6
0.1%
1-7
0%
-6
0.1%
0-7
0%
-7
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+1%
-13%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Chelsea
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07 Apr. 1931 |
LEI
2 - 1
CHL
75%
15%
10%
|
74 | 80 | 6 | 0 |
| 06 Apr. 1931 |
CHL
1 - 0
LEI
39%
25%
37%
|
74 | 80 | 6 | 0 |
| 04 Apr. 1931 |
ARS
2 - 1
CHL
78%
14%
8%
|
74 | 86 | 12 | 0 |
| 28 Mar. 1931 |
CHL
1 - 0
LEE
45%
24%
31%
|
74 | 77 | 3 | 0 |
| 25 Mar. 1931 |
CHL
1 - 0
BIR
43%
25%
33%
|
73 | 80 | 7 | +1 |
Matches
Derby County
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06 Apr. 1931 |
DER
3 - 2
BPO
68%
16%
16%
|
83 | 72 | 11 | 0 |
| 04 Apr. 1931 |
DER
1 - 2
MID
67%
17%
16%
|
83 | 80 | 3 | 0 |
| 03 Apr. 1931 |
BPO
1 - 0
DER
44%
22%
34%
|
84 | 72 | 12 | -1 |
| 28 Mar. 1931 |
WHU
0 - 1
DER
55%
20%
25%
|
83 | 79 | 4 | +1 |
| 21 Mar. 1931 |
DER
1 - 1
ASV
56%
20%
24%
|
83 | 86 | 3 | 0 |