FA Cup 1/32
Global 4-3
Chelsea vs Aston Villa analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
62.8%
Win probability
2.32
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
0.1%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.1%
7-0
0.2%
8-1
0.1%
9-2
<0%
+7
0.3%
6-0
0.7%
7-1
0.3%
8-2
<0%
+6
1%
5-0
1.7%
6-1
0.8%
7-2
0.2%
8-3
<0%
+5
2.6%
4-0
3.6%
5-1
2%
6-2
0.5%
7-3
0.1%
+4
6.2%
3-0
6.3%
4-1
4.3%
5-2
1.2%
6-3
0.2%
7-4
<0%
+3
12%
2-0
8.1%
3-1
7.4%
4-2
2.5%
5-3
0.5%
6-4
0.1%
+2
18.6%
1-0
7%
2-1
9.6%
3-2
4.4%
4-3
1%
5-4
0.1%
6-5
<0%
+1
22.1%
19%
Draw
0-0
3%
1-1
8.3%
2-2
5.7%
3-3
1.7%
4-4
0.3%
5-5
<0%
0
19%
18.2%
Win probability
1.18
Expected goals
0-1
3.6%
1-2
4.9%
2-3
2.2%
3-4
0.5%
4-5
0.1%
-1
11.3%
0-2
2.1%
1-3
1.9%
2-4
0.7%
3-5
0.1%
4-6
0%
-2
4.8%
0-3
0.8%
1-4
0.6%
2-5
0.2%
3-6
0%
-3
1.6%
0-4
0.2%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.4%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Chelsea
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Jan. 1987 |
ASV
2 - 2
CHL
54%
22%
24%
|
79 | 78 | 1 | 0 |
| 03 Jan. 1987 |
LUT
1 - 0
CHL
60%
22%
18%
|
80 | 83 | 3 | -1 |
| 01 Jan. 1987 |
CHL
3 - 1
QPR
60%
22%
18%
|
79 | 80 | 1 | +1 |
| 27 Dec. 1986 |
CHL
4 - 1
ASV
57%
22%
21%
|
79 | 79 | 0 | 0 |
| 26 Dec. 1986 |
SOU
1 - 2
CHL
63%
21%
16%
|
79 | 83 | 4 | 0 |
Matches
Aston Villa
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Jan. 1987 |
ASV
2 - 2
CHL
54%
22%
24%
|
78 | 79 | 1 | 0 |
| 03 Jan. 1987 |
ASV
0 - 0
NTT
34%
26%
40%
|
78 | 85 | 7 | 0 |
| 01 Jan. 1987 |
EVE
3 - 0
ASV
79%
14%
7%
|
78 | 90 | 12 | 0 |
| 27 Dec. 1986 |
CHL
4 - 1
ASV
57%
22%
21%
|
79 | 79 | 0 | -1 |
| 26 Dec. 1986 |
ASV
2 - 0
CHA
65%
20%
15%
|
78 | 73 | 5 | +1 |