Champions League Quarter-finals
Global 3-2
Chelsea vs Arsenal analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
34%
Win probability
1.31
Expected goals
6-0
<0%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.1%
5-0
0.2%
6-1
0.1%
+5
0.3%
4-0
0.8%
5-1
0.3%
6-2
<0%
+4
1.1%
3-0
2.4%
4-1
1.1%
5-2
0.2%
6-3
<0%
+3
3.7%
2-0
5.4%
3-1
3.4%
4-2
0.8%
5-3
0.1%
+2
9.8%
1-0
8.3%
2-1
7.9%
3-2
2.5%
4-3
0.4%
5-4
<0%
+1
19.1%
25.4%
Draw
0-0
6.3%
1-1
12%
2-2
5.7%
3-3
1.2%
4-4
0.1%
5-5
<0%
0
25.4%
40.6%
Win probability
1.45
Expected goals
0-1
9.2%
1-2
8.7%
2-3
2.8%
3-4
0.4%
4-5
0%
-1
21.2%
0-2
6.7%
1-3
4.2%
2-4
1%
3-5
0.1%
4-6
0%
-2
12%
0-3
3.2%
1-4
1.5%
2-5
0.3%
3-6
0%
-3
5.1%
0-4
1.2%
1-5
0.4%
2-6
0.1%
-4
1.7%
0-5
0.3%
1-6
0.1%
2-7
0%
-5
0.5%
0-6
0.1%
1-7
0%
-6
0.1%
0-7
0%
-7
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Chelsea
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Mar. 2004 |
CHL
2 - 1
FUL
69%
19%
12%
|
91 | 84 | 7 | 0 |
| 13 Mar. 2004 |
BOL
0 - 2
CHL
22%
25%
53%
|
91 | 81 | 10 | 0 |
| 09 Mar. 2004 |
CHL
0 - 0
STU
63%
21%
16%
|
91 | 87 | 4 | 0 |
| 28 Feb. 2004 |
MAC
0 - 1
CHL
28%
26%
47%
|
91 | 83 | 8 | 0 |
| 25 Feb. 2004 |
STU
0 - 1
CHL
32%
27%
40%
|
90 | 87 | 3 | +1 |
Matches
Arsenal
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Mar. 2004 |
ARS
2 - 1
BOL
82%
13%
6%
|
94 | 80 | 14 | 0 |
| 13 Mar. 2004 |
BBU
0 - 2
ARS
14%
21%
65%
|
94 | 83 | 11 | 0 |
| 10 Mar. 2004 |
ARS
2 - 0
CEL
74%
17%
9%
|
94 | 87 | 7 | 0 |
| 06 Mar. 2004 |
OPA
1 - 5
ARS
16%
22%
62%
|
94 | 77 | 17 | 0 |
| 28 Feb. 2004 |
ARS
2 - 1
CHA
82%
13%
5%
|
94 | 82 | 12 | 0 |