Chelsea vs AFC Bournemouth analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
63.2%
Win probability
2.11
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
<0%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.1%
7-0
0.2%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.2%
6-0
0.6%
7-1
0.2%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.7%
5-0
1.6%
6-1
0.6%
7-2
0.1%
+5
2.2%
4-0
3.7%
5-1
1.6%
6-2
0.3%
7-3
<0%
+4
5.6%
3-0
7.1%
4-1
3.7%
5-2
0.8%
6-3
0.1%
+3
11.6%
2-0
10.1%
3-1
7%
4-2
1.8%
5-3
0.3%
6-4
<0%
+2
19.2%
1-0
9.5%
2-1
9.9%
3-2
3.5%
4-3
0.6%
5-4
0.1%
+1
23.6%
20.1%
Draw
0-0
4.5%
1-1
9.4%
2-2
4.9%
3-3
1.1%
4-4
0.1%
5-5
<0%
0
20.1%
16.7%
Win probability
0.99
Expected goals
0-1
4.4%
1-2
4.6%
2-3
1.6%
3-4
0.3%
4-5
0%
-1
11%
0-2
2.2%
1-3
1.5%
2-4
0.4%
3-5
0.1%
-2
4.2%
0-3
0.7%
1-4
0.4%
2-5
0.1%
-3
1.2%
0-4
0.2%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.3%
0-5
0%
1-6
0%
-5
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-1%
+21%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
4º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
43
2º
17º
4º
40
5º
14º
7º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
7º
Expected position in the table
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
1º
|
56 | 91 |
1º
|
95.5% | |
|
2º
|
50 | 79 |
2º
|
70.5% | |
|
5º
|
41 | 73 |
3º
|
52% | |
|
|
4º
|
43 | 67 |
4º
|
36.5% | |
|
6º
|
41 | 62 |
5º
|
24% | |
|
3º
|
47 | 62 |
6º
|
22% | |
|
|
7º
|
40 | 58 |
7º
|
29% | |
|
8º
|
37 | 55 |
8º
|
17.5% | |
|
10º
|
34 | 52 |
9º
|
15% | |
|
14º
|
27 | 51 |
10º
|
15.5% | |
|
9º
|
36 | 51 |
11º
|
15.5% | |
|
13º
|
29 | 50 |
12º
|
13.5% | |
|
11º
|
31 | 49 |
13º
|
16.5% | |
|
12º
|
30 | 48 |
14º
|
20.5% | |
|
15º
|
27 | 46 |
15º
|
18% | |
|
16º
|
26 | 41 |
16º
|
35.5% | |
|
17º
|
19 | 34 |
17º
|
50% | |
|
18º
|
17 | 29 |
18º
|
40.5% | |
|
19º
|
16 | 28 |
19º
|
43% | |
|
20º
|
9 | 21 |
20º
|
82% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Champion
|
0% | 0% |
|
Champions League
|
55% | 5.5% |
|
Europa League
|
26% | 10% |
|
Mid-table
|
19% | 84.5% |
|
Relegation
|
0% | 0% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Chelsea
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Jan. 2025 |
CHL
5 - 0
MOR
87%
9%
3%
|
93 | 53 | 40 | 0 |
| 04 Jan. 2025 |
CRY
1 - 1
CHL
25%
24%
51%
|
93 | 89 | 4 | 0 |
| 30 Dec. 2024 |
IPS
2 - 0
CHL
15%
20%
65%
|
94 | 83 | 11 | -1 |
| 26 Dec. 2024 |
CHL
1 - 2
FUL
69%
19%
13%
|
94 | 89 | 5 | 0 |
| 22 Dec. 2024 |
EVE
0 - 0
CHL
17%
22%
62%
|
95 | 89 | 6 | -1 |
Matches
AFC Bournemouth
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Jan. 2025 |
BOU
5 - 1
WBA
67%
20%
13%
|
89 | 80 | 9 | 0 |
| 04 Jan. 2025 |
BOU
1 - 0
EVE
47%
25%
28%
|
89 | 88 | 1 | 0 |
| 29 Dec. 2024 |
FUL
2 - 2
BOU
46%
24%
30%
|
89 | 89 | 0 | 0 |
| 26 Dec. 2024 |
BOU
0 - 0
CRY
42%
26%
32%
|
89 | 90 | 1 | 0 |
| 22 Dec. 2024 |
MUD
0 - 3
BOU
64%
20%
16%
|
89 | 94 | 5 | 0 |