Chapecoense vs Hercílio Luz analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
78.2%
Win probability
2.04
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
0.1%
+8
0.1%
7-0
0.3%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.3%
6-0
0.9%
7-1
0.1%
+6
1%
5-0
2.7%
6-1
0.3%
7-2
<0%
+5
3.1%
4-0
6.7%
5-1
0.9%
6-2
0.1%
+4
7.7%
3-0
13.2%
4-1
2.2%
5-2
0.1%
+3
15.6%
2-0
19.5%
3-1
4.4%
4-2
0.4%
5-3
<0%
+2
24.2%
1-0
19.1%
2-1
6.4%
3-2
0.7%
4-3
<0%
+1
26.3%
16.8%
Draw
0-0
9.4%
1-1
6.3%
2-2
1.1%
3-3
0.1%
0
16.8%
5%
Win probability
0.33
Expected goals
0-1
3.1%
1-2
1%
2-3
0.1%
-1
4.2%
0-2
0.5%
1-3
0.1%
-2
0.6%
0-3
0.1%
-3
0.1%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-9%
-7%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Chapecoense
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 Mar. 2021 |
CHA
2 - 0
JUV
76%
18%
6%
|
76 | 46 | 30 | 0 |
| 14 Mar. 2021 |
CRI
0 - 1
CHA
18%
25%
58%
|
76 | 55 | 21 | 0 |
| 11 Mar. 2021 |
CHA
2 - 1
AVA
53%
26%
21%
|
75 | 66 | 9 | +1 |
| 25 Feb. 2021 |
CAC
0 - 2
CHA
7%
15%
78%
|
75 | 48 | 27 | 0 |
| 30 Jan. 2021 |
CHA
3 - 1
CON
61%
25%
13%
|
75 | 59 | 16 | 0 |
Matches
Hercílio Luz
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Mar. 2021 |
HER
1 - 0
MAR
31%
26%
43%
|
41 | 49 | 8 | 0 |
| 03 Mar. 2021 |
JUV
2 - 0
HER
55%
23%
22%
|
42 | 45 | 3 | -1 |
| 28 Feb. 2021 |
HER
2 - 3
ECP
49%
23%
28%
|
43 | 39 | 4 | -1 |
| 25 Feb. 2021 |
CRI
1 - 1
HER
75%
17%
8%
|
43 | 56 | 13 | 0 |
| 20 Dec. 2020 |
HER
0 - 2
ECP
50%
23%
27%
|
44 | 38 | 6 | -1 |