Conmebol Sudamericana Quarter-finals
Global 3-4
Chapecoense vs River Plate analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
32.9%
Win probability
1.15
Expected goals
6-0
<0%
+6
<0%
5-0
0.1%
6-1
<0%
+5
0.2%
4-0
0.6%
5-1
0.2%
6-2
<0%
+4
0.8%
3-0
2.2%
4-1
0.8%
5-2
0.1%
+3
3.1%
2-0
5.7%
3-1
2.8%
4-2
0.5%
5-3
0.1%
+2
9.2%
1-0
10%
2-1
7.4%
3-2
1.8%
4-3
0.2%
5-4
<0%
+1
19.5%
27.3%
Draw
0-0
8.7%
1-1
12.9%
2-2
4.8%
3-3
0.8%
4-4
0.1%
0
27.3%
39.8%
Win probability
1.29
Expected goals
0-1
11.3%
1-2
8.4%
2-3
2.1%
3-4
0.3%
4-5
0%
-1
22%
0-2
7.3%
1-3
3.6%
2-4
0.7%
3-5
0.1%
-2
11.6%
0-3
3.1%
1-4
1.2%
2-5
0.2%
3-6
0%
-3
4.5%
0-4
1%
1-5
0.3%
2-6
0%
-4
1.4%
0-5
0.3%
1-6
0.1%
-5
0.3%
0-6
0.1%
1-7
0%
-6
0.1%
0-7
0%
-7
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Chapecoense
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 Oct. 2015 |
CHA
0 - 0
AVA
61%
23%
16%
|
76 | 65 | 11 | 0 |
| 22 Oct. 2015 |
RIV
3 - 1
CHA
61%
23%
16%
|
77 | 84 | 7 | -1 |
| 18 Oct. 2015 |
GRE
2 - 3
CHA
60%
24%
15%
|
76 | 83 | 7 | +1 |
| 16 Oct. 2015 |
VAS
1 - 1
CHA
47%
28%
25%
|
76 | 75 | 1 | 0 |
| 04 Oct. 2015 |
CHA
5 - 1
PAL
30%
27%
43%
|
75 | 83 | 8 | +1 |
Matches
River Plate
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 Oct. 2015 |
RIV
3 - 1
CHA
61%
23%
16%
|
84 | 77 | 7 | 0 |
| 18 Oct. 2015 |
RIV
1 - 1
ALD
58%
24%
18%
|
84 | 75 | 9 | 0 |
| 15 Oct. 2015 |
DYJ
1 - 0
RIV
30%
26%
44%
|
84 | 73 | 11 | 0 |
| 11 Oct. 2015 |
RIV
1 - 0
BOC
43%
27%
30%
|
84 | 84 | 0 | 0 |
| 05 Oct. 2015 |
IND
3 - 0
RIV
39%
27%
34%
|
84 | 82 | 2 | 0 |