Cesarense vs Académica analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
10.3%
Win probability
0.71
Expected goals
4-0
0.1%
5-1
<0%
+4
0.1%
3-0
0.3%
4-1
0.1%
5-2
<0%
+3
0.5%
2-0
1.3%
3-1
0.7%
4-2
0.1%
5-3
<0%
+2
2.2%
1-0
3.7%
2-1
3%
3-2
0.8%
4-3
0.1%
+1
7.6%
17.6%
Draw
0-0
5.3%
1-1
8.3%
2-2
3.3%
3-3
0.6%
4-4
0.1%
0
17.6%
72.1%
Win probability
2.23
Expected goals
0-1
11.8%
1-2
9.3%
2-3
2.5%
3-4
0.3%
4-5
0%
-1
23.9%
0-2
13.2%
1-3
6.9%
2-4
1.4%
3-5
0.1%
-2
21.6%
0-3
9.8%
1-4
3.9%
2-5
0.6%
3-6
0.1%
-3
14.3%
0-4
5.5%
1-5
1.7%
2-6
0.2%
3-7
0%
-4
7.5%
0-5
2.4%
1-6
0.6%
2-7
0.1%
-5
3.2%
0-6
0.9%
1-7
0.2%
2-8
0%
-6
1.1%
0-7
0.3%
1-8
0.1%
-7
0.3%
0-8
0.1%
1-9
0%
-8
0.1%
0-9
0%
-9
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Académica
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Oct. 2010 |
ARO
2 - 2
ACA
31%
25%
45%
|
76 | 65 | 11 | 0 |
| 01 Oct. 2010 |
UDL
2 - 1
ACA
39%
28%
34%
|
76 | 72 | 4 | 0 |
| 25 Sep. 2010 |
ACA
3 - 1
VIT
40%
29%
31%
|
75 | 80 | 5 | +1 |
| 19 Sep. 2010 |
RIO
2 - 2
ACA
33%
29%
38%
|
75 | 69 | 6 | 0 |
| 12 Sep. 2010 |
ACA
3 - 0
NAV
56%
26%
18%
|
75 | 69 | 6 | 0 |