Cerro Porteño vs Nacional analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
46.2%
Win probability
1.42
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
+7
<0%
6-0
0.1%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.1%
5-0
0.4%
6-1
0.1%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.5%
4-0
1.5%
5-1
0.4%
6-2
0.1%
+4
1.9%
3-0
4.2%
4-1
1.5%
5-2
0.2%
6-3
<0%
+3
5.9%
2-0
8.8%
3-1
4.2%
4-2
0.8%
5-3
0.1%
+2
13.9%
1-0
12.5%
2-1
8.9%
3-2
2.1%
4-3
0.3%
5-4
<0%
+1
23.8%
26.8%
Draw
0-0
8.8%
1-1
12.6%
2-2
4.5%
3-3
0.7%
4-4
0.1%
0
26.8%
27%
Win probability
1.02
Expected goals
0-1
8.9%
1-2
6.4%
2-3
1.5%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
17.1%
0-2
4.5%
1-3
2.2%
2-4
0.4%
3-5
0%
-2
7.1%
0-3
1.5%
1-4
0.6%
2-5
0.1%
-3
2.2%
0-4
0.4%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.5%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
3º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
18
1º
4º
3º
19
2º
6º
2º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
2º
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
1º
|
24 | 41 |
1º
|
60% | |
|
|
2º
|
19 | 34 |
2º
|
20% | |
|
|
3º
|
18 | 33 |
3º
|
12% | |
|
4º
|
18 | 33 |
4º
|
17% | |
|
6º
|
16 | 33 |
5º
|
10.5% | |
|
5º
|
16 | 31 |
6º
|
15% | |
|
7º
|
16 | 30 |
7º
|
10% | |
|
8º
|
14 | 29 |
8º
|
12% | |
|
9º
|
12 | 29 |
9º
|
12% | |
|
10º
|
11 | 23 |
10º
|
24% | |
|
11º
|
9 | 23 |
11º
|
35.5% | |
|
12º
|
4 | 16 |
12º
|
70% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
CONMEBOL Libertadores
|
8.5% | 9.5% |
|
Mid-table
|
91.5% | 90.5% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Cerro Porteño
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 Aug. 2024 |
TAC
0 - 1
CCP
43%
26%
31%
|
78 | 75 | 3 | 0 |
| 18 Aug. 2024 |
CCP
1 - 1
OLI
44%
27%
29%
|
78 | 78 | 0 | 0 |
| 12 Aug. 2024 |
CCP
1 - 0
AME
44%
26%
30%
|
78 | 77 | 1 | 0 |
| 09 Aug. 2024 |
JLM
2 - 1
CCP
38%
28%
35%
|
78 | 76 | 2 | 0 |
| 05 Aug. 2024 |
CCP
4 - 0
LQE
46%
27%
27%
|
78 | 78 | 0 | 0 |
Matches
Nacional
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Aug. 2024 |
NAC
3 - 1
AME
42%
27%
31%
|
77 | 76 | 1 | 0 |
| 17 Aug. 2024 |
JLM
0 - 0
NAC
40%
28%
32%
|
77 | 75 | 2 | 0 |
| 13 Aug. 2024 |
NAC
1 - 0
LQE
45%
28%
28%
|
77 | 77 | 0 | 0 |
| 08 Aug. 2024 |
2DE
1 - 0
NAC
43%
27%
30%
|
78 | 77 | 1 | -1 |
| 04 Aug. 2024 |
NAC
0 - 0
AME
44%
27%
30%
|
78 | 77 | 1 | 0 |