Conmebol Sudamericana 1/16
Global 3-1
Cerro Porteño vs Libertad analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
48.2%
Win probability
1.65
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
+7
<0%
6-0
0.2%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.2%
5-0
0.6%
6-1
0.2%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.8%
4-0
1.8%
5-1
0.7%
6-2
0.1%
7-3
<0%
+4
2.6%
3-0
4.4%
4-1
2.1%
5-2
0.4%
6-3
<0%
+3
7%
2-0
8%
3-1
5.2%
4-2
1.3%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
14.6%
1-0
9.7%
2-1
9.5%
3-2
3.1%
4-3
0.5%
5-4
<0%
+1
22.8%
24.3%
Draw
0-0
5.9%
1-1
11.5%
2-2
5.6%
3-3
1.2%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
24.3%
27.5%
Win probability
1.19
Expected goals
0-1
7%
1-2
6.8%
2-3
2.2%
3-4
0.4%
4-5
0%
-1
16.4%
0-2
4.1%
1-3
2.7%
2-4
0.7%
3-5
0.1%
-2
7.6%
0-3
1.6%
1-4
0.8%
2-5
0.2%
3-6
0%
-3
2.6%
0-4
0.5%
1-5
0.2%
2-6
0%
-4
0.7%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.2%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Cerro Porteño
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07 Aug. 2004 |
CCP
3 - 0
NAC
63%
21%
15%
|
79 | 69 | 10 | 0 |
| 27 Jun. 2004 |
OLI
1 - 1
CCP
40%
27%
33%
|
79 | 72 | 7 | 0 |
| 20 Jun. 2004 |
CCP
3 - 0
AME
70%
20%
11%
|
78 | 65 | 13 | +1 |
| 13 Jun. 2004 |
CCP
2 - 1
NAC
63%
22%
16%
|
78 | 69 | 9 | 0 |
| 09 Jun. 2004 |
12O
1 - 4
CCP
27%
28%
45%
|
78 | 64 | 14 | 0 |
Matches
Libertad
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07 Aug. 2004 |
AME
1 - 2
LIB
24%
25%
51%
|
79 | 65 | 14 | 0 |
| 26 Jun. 2004 |
LIB
3 - 0
SPC
75%
17%
9%
|
78 | 61 | 17 | +1 |
| 20 Jun. 2004 |
NAC
2 - 1
LIB
27%
25%
48%
|
79 | 68 | 11 | -1 |
| 13 Jun. 2004 |
LQE
1 - 1
LIB
26%
25%
49%
|
79 | 67 | 12 | 0 |
| 09 Jun. 2004 |
LIB
3 - 0
GUA
59%
23%
18%
|
79 | 71 | 8 | 0 |