Conmebol Sudamericana 1/32
Global 3-3
Cerro Porteño vs Guaraní analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
57.6%
Win probability
1.79
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.3%
7-1
0.1%
+6
0.4%
5-0
1%
6-1
0.3%
7-2
<0%
+5
1.3%
4-0
2.8%
5-1
0.9%
6-2
0.1%
7-3
<0%
+4
3.9%
3-0
6.3%
4-1
2.6%
5-2
0.4%
6-3
<0%
+3
9.4%
2-0
10.6%
3-1
5.8%
4-2
1.2%
5-3
0.1%
+2
17.8%
1-0
11.9%
2-1
9.8%
3-2
2.7%
4-3
0.4%
5-4
<0%
+1
24.8%
23.1%
Draw
0-0
6.6%
1-1
11%
2-2
4.5%
3-3
0.8%
4-4
0.1%
0
23.1%
19.3%
Win probability
0.93
Expected goals
0-1
6.1%
1-2
5.1%
2-3
1.4%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
12.8%
0-2
2.8%
1-3
1.6%
2-4
0.3%
3-5
0%
-2
4.8%
0-3
0.9%
1-4
0.4%
2-5
0.1%
-3
1.3%
0-4
0.2%
1-5
0.1%
-4
0.3%
0-5
0%
1-6
0%
-5
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Cerro Porteño
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Aug. 2005 |
SAN
1 - 2
CCP
35%
27%
38%
|
78 | 70 | 8 | 0 |
| 14 Aug. 2005 |
CCP
1 - 1
12O
64%
22%
14%
|
79 | 68 | 11 | -1 |
| 09 Aug. 2005 |
GUA
1 - 2
CCP
40%
26%
34%
|
78 | 73 | 5 | +1 |
| 05 Aug. 2005 |
LIB
2 - 3
CCP
46%
26%
29%
|
78 | 75 | 3 | 0 |
| 25 Jun. 2005 |
GEN
2 - 1
CCP
20%
27%
53%
|
78 | 61 | 17 | 0 |
Matches
Guaraní
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Aug. 2005 |
12O
0 - 2
GUA
38%
27%
35%
|
72 | 68 | 4 | 0 |
| 14 Aug. 2005 |
GUA
0 - 1
LIB
42%
26%
31%
|
72 | 75 | 3 | 0 |
| 09 Aug. 2005 |
GUA
1 - 2
CCP
40%
26%
34%
|
73 | 78 | 5 | -1 |
| 05 Aug. 2005 |
GEN
1 - 0
GUA
28%
27%
45%
|
73 | 62 | 11 | 0 |
| 26 Jun. 2005 |
LQE
1 - 2
GUA
36%
27%
37%
|
73 | 67 | 6 | 0 |