Conmebol Sudamericana 1/16
Global 3-1
Cerro Porteño vs Defensor Sporting analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
46.1%
Win probability
1.48
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
+7
<0%
6-0
0.1%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.1%
5-0
0.5%
6-1
0.1%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.6%
4-0
1.5%
5-1
0.5%
6-2
0.1%
+4
2.1%
3-0
4.1%
4-1
1.7%
5-2
0.3%
6-3
<0%
+3
6.1%
2-0
8.4%
3-1
4.5%
4-2
0.9%
5-3
0.1%
+2
13.9%
1-0
11.3%
2-1
9.1%
3-2
2.5%
4-3
0.3%
5-4
<0%
+1
23.3%
26%
Draw
0-0
7.7%
1-1
12.4%
2-2
5%
3-3
0.9%
4-4
0.1%
0
26%
27.9%
Win probability
1.09
Expected goals
0-1
8.4%
1-2
6.7%
2-3
1.8%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
17.2%
0-2
4.6%
1-3
2.4%
2-4
0.5%
3-5
0.1%
-2
7.5%
0-3
1.7%
1-4
0.7%
2-5
0.1%
-3
2.4%
0-4
0.5%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.6%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Cerro Porteño
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 Aug. 2005 |
GUA
2 - 1
CCP
40%
27%
33%
|
78 | 73 | 5 | 0 |
| 23 Aug. 2005 |
CCP
1 - 2
GUA
58%
23%
19%
|
79 | 72 | 7 | -1 |
| 19 Aug. 2005 |
SAN
1 - 2
CCP
35%
27%
38%
|
78 | 70 | 8 | +1 |
| 14 Aug. 2005 |
CCP
1 - 1
12O
64%
22%
14%
|
79 | 68 | 11 | -1 |
| 09 Aug. 2005 |
GUA
1 - 2
CCP
40%
26%
34%
|
78 | 73 | 5 | +1 |
Matches
Defensor Sporting
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 Aug. 2005 |
COL
0 - 0
DEF
32%
27%
41%
|
80 | 66 | 14 | 0 |
| 23 Aug. 2005 |
DAN
1 - 3
DEF
45%
26%
29%
|
80 | 78 | 2 | 0 |
| 20 Aug. 2005 |
CSC
2 - 1
DEF
32%
28%
40%
|
80 | 66 | 14 | 0 |
| 16 Aug. 2005 |
DEF
2 - 3
DAN
60%
22%
18%
|
81 | 78 | 3 | -1 |
| 03 Jul. 2005 |
CSC
0 - 1
DEF
32%
27%
40%
|
81 | 66 | 15 | 0 |