Central Coast Mariners vs Melbourne Victory analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
58.4%
Win probability
2.01
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.2%
6-0
0.4%
7-1
0.1%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.6%
5-0
1.2%
6-1
0.5%
7-2
0.1%
+5
1.7%
4-0
3%
5-1
1.3%
6-2
0.2%
7-3
<0%
+4
4.7%
3-0
6%
4-1
3.3%
5-2
0.7%
6-3
0.1%
+3
10.2%
2-0
9%
3-1
6.6%
4-2
1.8%
5-3
0.3%
6-4
<0%
+2
17.8%
1-0
8.9%
2-1
9.9%
3-2
3.7%
4-3
0.7%
5-4
0.1%
+1
23.3%
21.3%
Draw
0-0
4.4%
1-1
9.8%
2-2
5.5%
3-3
1.3%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
21.3%
20.3%
Win probability
1.1
Expected goals
0-1
4.9%
1-2
5.4%
2-3
2%
3-4
0.4%
4-5
0%
-1
12.7%
0-2
2.7%
1-3
2%
2-4
0.6%
3-5
0.1%
-2
5.3%
0-3
1%
1-4
0.5%
2-5
0.1%
3-6
0%
-3
1.7%
0-4
0.3%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.4%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-8%
+3%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
4º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
18
2º
12º
2º
24
1º
6º
1º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
1º
Expected position in the table
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
|
1º
|
24 | 48 |
1º
|
31% | |
|
|
4º
|
18 | 46 |
2º
|
19% | |
|
2º
|
24 | 46 |
3º
|
18% | |
|
3º
|
21 | 45 |
4º
|
13% | |
|
6º
|
18 | 43 |
5º
|
14.5% | |
|
5º
|
18 | 39 |
6º
|
17% | |
|
9º
|
15 | 37 |
7º
|
14.5% | |
|
7º
|
18 | 36 |
8º
|
20% | |
|
8º
|
17 | 36 |
9º
|
18.5% | |
|
10º
|
13 | 29 |
10º
|
32% | |
|
11º
|
8 | 23 |
11º
|
33.5% | |
|
12º
|
7 | 22 |
12º
|
46.5% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
AFC Champions League Elite
|
22.5% | 31% |
|
Next round
|
68.5% | 63.5% |
|
Mid-table
|
9% | 5.5% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Central Coast Mariners
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06 Jan. 2024 |
WES
0 - 1
CCM
36%
25%
39%
|
74 | 71 | 3 | 0 |
| 31 Dec. 2023 |
CCM
4 - 2
PER
75%
16%
10%
|
74 | 62 | 12 | 0 |
| 21 Dec. 2023 |
BRI
0 - 3
CCM
31%
26%
44%
|
74 | 69 | 5 | 0 |
| 17 Dec. 2023 |
MCI
3 - 3
CCM
44%
24%
32%
|
74 | 75 | 1 | 0 |
| 13 Dec. 2023 |
STA
0 - 3
CCM
4%
11%
86%
|
74 | 29 | 45 | 0 |
Matches
Melbourne Victory
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06 Jan. 2024 |
PER
2 - 3
MEL
26%
25%
49%
|
72 | 61 | 11 | 0 |
| 30 Dec. 2023 |
MEL
2 - 0
ADE
44%
24%
31%
|
71 | 70 | 1 | +1 |
| 23 Dec. 2023 |
MCI
0 - 0
MEL
53%
23%
23%
|
72 | 75 | 3 | -1 |
| 16 Dec. 2023 |
MEL
3 - 0
SYD
49%
25%
26%
|
71 | 71 | 0 | +1 |
| 10 Dec. 2023 |
WES
3 - 4
MEL
47%
26%
28%
|
71 | 72 | 1 | 0 |