Central Coast Mariners vs Melbourne Victory analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
58.4%
Win probability
2.01
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.2%
6-0
0.4%
7-1
0.1%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.6%
5-0
1.2%
6-1
0.5%
7-2
0.1%
+5
1.7%
4-0
3%
5-1
1.3%
6-2
0.2%
7-3
<0%
+4
4.7%
3-0
6%
4-1
3.3%
5-2
0.7%
6-3
0.1%
+3
10.2%
2-0
9%
3-1
6.6%
4-2
1.8%
5-3
0.3%
6-4
<0%
+2
17.8%
1-0
8.9%
2-1
9.9%
3-2
3.7%
4-3
0.7%
5-4
0.1%
+1
23.3%
21.3%
Draw
0-0
4.4%
1-1
9.8%
2-2
5.5%
3-3
1.3%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
21.3%
20.3%
Win probability
1.1
Expected goals
0-1
4.9%
1-2
5.4%
2-3
2%
3-4
0.4%
4-5
0%
-1
12.7%
0-2
2.7%
1-3
2%
2-4
0.6%
3-5
0.1%
-2
5.3%
0-3
1%
1-4
0.5%
2-5
0.1%
3-6
0%
-3
1.7%
0-4
0.3%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.4%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+26%
+4%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
4º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
18
2º
12º
2º
24
1º
6º
1º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
1º
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
|
1º
|
24 | 48 |
1º
|
31% | |
|
|
4º
|
18 | 46 |
2º
|
19% | |
|
2º
|
24 | 46 |
3º
|
18% | |
|
3º
|
21 | 45 |
4º
|
13% | |
|
6º
|
18 | 43 |
5º
|
14.5% | |
|
5º
|
18 | 39 |
6º
|
17% | |
|
9º
|
15 | 37 |
7º
|
14.5% | |
|
7º
|
18 | 36 |
8º
|
20% | |
|
8º
|
17 | 36 |
9º
|
18.5% | |
|
10º
|
13 | 29 |
10º
|
32% | |
|
11º
|
8 | 23 |
11º
|
33.5% | |
|
12º
|
7 | 22 |
12º
|
46.5% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
AFC Champions League Elite
|
22.5% | 31% |
|
Next round
|
68.5% | 63.5% |
|
Mid-table
|
9% | 5.5% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Central Coast Mariners
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06 Jan. 2024 |
WES
0 - 1
CCM
36%
25%
39%
|
74 | 70 | 4 | 0 |
| 31 Dec. 2023 |
CCM
4 - 2
PER
75%
16%
10%
|
73 | 61 | 12 | +1 |
| 21 Dec. 2023 |
BRI
0 - 3
CCM
31%
26%
44%
|
73 | 69 | 4 | 0 |
| 17 Dec. 2023 |
MCI
3 - 3
CCM
44%
24%
32%
|
73 | 74 | 1 | 0 |
| 13 Dec. 2023 |
STA
0 - 3
CCM
4%
11%
86%
|
73 | 27 | 46 | 0 |
Matches
Melbourne Victory
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06 Jan. 2024 |
PER
2 - 3
MEL
26%
25%
49%
|
71 | 60 | 11 | 0 |
| 30 Dec. 2023 |
MEL
2 - 0
ADE
44%
24%
31%
|
70 | 69 | 1 | +1 |
| 23 Dec. 2023 |
MCI
0 - 0
MEL
53%
23%
23%
|
71 | 74 | 3 | -1 |
| 16 Dec. 2023 |
MEL
3 - 0
SYD
49%
25%
26%
|
70 | 70 | 0 | +1 |
| 10 Dec. 2023 |
WES
3 - 4
MEL
47%
26%
28%
|
70 | 71 | 1 | 0 |