Copa del Rey Last 16
Global 5-4
Celta vs Real Madrid analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
42.2%
Win probability
1.95
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
<0%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.2%
7-1
0.1%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.3%
5-0
0.5%
6-1
0.3%
7-2
0.1%
8-3
<0%
+5
1%
4-0
1.4%
5-1
1%
6-2
0.3%
7-3
<0%
+4
2.7%
3-0
2.9%
4-1
2.5%
5-2
0.9%
6-3
0.2%
7-4
<0%
+3
6.5%
2-0
4.4%
3-1
5.2%
4-2
2.3%
5-3
0.5%
6-4
0.1%
+2
12.6%
1-0
4.5%
2-1
8%
3-2
4.7%
4-3
1.4%
5-4
0.2%
6-5
<0%
+1
18.9%
21.4%
Draw
0-0
2.3%
1-1
8.2%
2-2
7.3%
3-3
2.8%
4-4
0.6%
5-5
0.1%
0
21.4%
36.5%
Win probability
1.81
Expected goals
0-1
4.2%
1-2
7.4%
2-3
4.4%
3-4
1.3%
4-5
0.2%
5-6
0%
-1
17.5%
0-2
3.8%
1-3
4.5%
2-4
2%
3-5
0.5%
4-6
0.1%
-2
10.8%
0-3
2.3%
1-4
2%
2-5
0.7%
3-6
0.1%
4-7
0%
-3
5.2%
0-4
1%
1-5
0.7%
2-6
0.2%
3-7
0%
-4
2%
0-5
0.4%
1-6
0.2%
2-7
0.1%
-5
0.7%
0-6
0.1%
1-7
0.1%
2-8
0%
-6
0.2%
0-7
0%
1-8
0%
-7
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Celta
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 May. 1941 |
RMA
2 - 2
CEL
80%
12%
9%
|
73 | 88 | 15 | 0 |
| 27 Apr. 1941 |
CEL
8 - 0
DEP
77%
13%
10%
|
72 | 64 | 8 | +1 |
| 20 Apr. 1941 |
DEP
2 - 3
CEL
51%
20%
29%
|
71 | 64 | 7 | +1 |
| 30 Mar. 1941 |
CEL
1 - 0
ZAR
68%
17%
15%
|
71 | 74 | 3 | 0 |
| 02 Mar. 1941 |
HER
0 - 5
CEL
60%
19%
21%
|
70 | 76 | 6 | +1 |
Matches
Real Madrid
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 May. 1941 |
RMA
2 - 2
CEL
80%
12%
9%
|
88 | 73 | 15 | 0 |
| 02 Mar. 1941 |
VCF
1 - 1
RMA
43%
23%
35%
|
88 | 80 | 8 | 0 |
| 23 Feb. 1941 |
RMA
1 - 2
FCB
69%
16%
15%
|
88 | 83 | 5 | 0 |
| 16 Feb. 1941 |
ATH
3 - 1
RMA
65%
17%
18%
|
88 | 87 | 1 | 0 |
| 09 Feb. 1941 |
SEV
5 - 4
RMA
49%
22%
30%
|
88 | 82 | 6 | 0 |