Apertura Ascenso MX Quarter-finals
Global 4-2
Celaya vs Alebrijes de Oaxaca analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
45%
Win probability
1.43
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
+7
<0%
6-0
0.1%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.1%
5-0
0.4%
6-1
0.1%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.5%
4-0
1.4%
5-1
0.4%
6-2
0.1%
+4
1.9%
3-0
4%
4-1
1.5%
5-2
0.2%
6-3
<0%
+3
5.8%
2-0
8.3%
3-1
4.3%
4-2
0.8%
5-3
0.1%
+2
13.5%
1-0
11.5%
2-1
9%
3-2
2.3%
4-3
0.3%
5-4
<0%
+1
23.2%
26.4%
Draw
0-0
8%
1-1
12.5%
2-2
4.9%
3-3
0.8%
4-4
0.1%
0
26.4%
28.6%
Win probability
1.09
Expected goals
0-1
8.7%
1-2
6.8%
2-3
1.8%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
17.6%
0-2
4.7%
1-3
2.5%
2-4
0.5%
3-5
0%
-2
7.7%
0-3
1.7%
1-4
0.7%
2-5
0.1%
-3
2.5%
0-4
0.5%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.6%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-4%
-15%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Celaya
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 Nov. 2016 |
ALE
2 - 1
TOR
44%
27%
30%
|
69 | 68 | 1 | 0 |
| 13 Nov. 2016 |
TOR
2 - 0
JUA
58%
25%
17%
|
70 | 67 | 3 | -1 |
| 05 Nov. 2016 |
TEP
2 - 2
TOR
42%
27%
31%
|
69 | 66 | 3 | +1 |
| 30 Oct. 2016 |
TOR
2 - 1
UAP
65%
22%
14%
|
68 | 59 | 9 | +1 |
| 23 Oct. 2016 |
LOB
1 - 2
TOR
33%
28%
39%
|
69 | 62 | 7 | -1 |
Matches
Alebrijes de Oaxaca
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 Nov. 2016 |
ALE
2 - 1
TOR
44%
27%
30%
|
68 | 69 | 1 | 0 |
| 13 Nov. 2016 |
CAÑ
1 - 1
ALE
41%
26%
33%
|
69 | 65 | 4 | -1 |
| 06 Nov. 2016 |
ALE
0 - 0
UAT
59%
24%
18%
|
69 | 63 | 6 | 0 |
| 30 Oct. 2016 |
DOR
1 - 1
ALE
44%
26%
29%
|
69 | 67 | 2 | 0 |
| 23 Oct. 2016 |
LOR
1 - 2
ALE
22%
25%
53%
|
69 | 52 | 17 | 0 |