Celaya vs Venados FC analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
60.4%
Win probability
1.81
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.3%
7-1
0.1%
+6
0.4%
5-0
1.1%
6-1
0.3%
7-2
<0%
+5
1.5%
4-0
3.2%
5-1
1%
6-2
0.1%
+4
4.3%
3-0
7%
4-1
2.7%
5-2
0.4%
6-3
<0%
+3
10.1%
2-0
11.6%
3-1
5.9%
4-2
1.1%
5-3
0.1%
+2
18.7%
1-0
12.8%
2-1
9.7%
3-2
2.5%
4-3
0.3%
5-4
<0%
+1
25.3%
22.6%
Draw
0-0
7.1%
1-1
10.7%
2-2
4.1%
3-3
0.7%
4-4
0.1%
0
22.6%
17%
Win probability
0.84
Expected goals
0-1
5.9%
1-2
4.5%
2-3
1.1%
3-4
0.1%
4-5
0%
-1
11.7%
0-2
2.5%
1-3
1.3%
2-4
0.2%
3-5
0%
-2
4%
0-3
0.7%
1-4
0.3%
2-5
0%
-3
1%
0-4
0.1%
1-5
0%
-4
0.2%
0-5
0%
-5
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+4%
+4%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
10º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
5
4º
14º
4º
6
5º
11º
7º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
7º
Expected position in the table
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
1º
|
13 | 30 |
1º
|
61.5% | |
|
3º
|
10 | 30 |
2º
|
32% | |
|
5º
|
9 | 26 |
3º
|
14.5% | |
|
|
10º
|
5 | 23 |
4º
|
13.5% | |
|
4º
|
9 | 23 |
5º
|
12.5% | |
|
2º
|
11 | 22 |
6º
|
11.5% | |
|
|
7º
|
6 | 20 |
7º
|
17.5% | |
|
8º
|
6 | 18 |
8º
|
11.5% | |
|
6º
|
6 | 17 |
9º
|
8.5% | |
|
9º
|
6 | 17 |
10º
|
14.5% | |
|
13º
|
2 | 14 |
11º
|
13.5% | |
|
11º
|
5 | 13 |
12º
|
16.5% | |
|
14º
|
1 | 13 |
13º
|
11.5% | |
|
12º
|
4 | 12 |
14º
|
26% | |
|
15º
|
0 | 8 |
15º
|
57.5% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Next round
|
84.5% | 75.5% |
|
Mid-table
|
15.5% | 24.5% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Celaya
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Jan. 2025 |
TOR
2 - 2
COR
29%
23%
48%
|
79 | 83 | 4 | 0 |
| 12 Jan. 2025 |
ATL
3 - 0
TOR
48%
26%
26%
|
79 | 81 | 2 | 0 |
| 24 Nov. 2024 |
CDT
3 - 2
TOR
40%
27%
34%
|
79 | 76 | 3 | 0 |
| 21 Nov. 2024 |
TOR
1 - 2
CDT
49%
25%
26%
|
80 | 75 | 5 | -1 |
| 17 Nov. 2024 |
ATL
0 - 3
TOR
52%
25%
23%
|
79 | 82 | 3 | +1 |
Matches
Venados FC
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Jan. 2025 |
MER
1 - 2
TAM
53%
25%
23%
|
71 | 70 | 1 | 0 |
| 11 Jan. 2025 |
TEM
2 - 2
MER
31%
26%
43%
|
71 | 64 | 7 | 0 |
| 22 Dec. 2024 |
MER
1 - 2
JUA
42%
23%
34%
|
71 | 73 | 2 | 0 |
| 10 Nov. 2024 |
TOR
4 - 1
MER
55%
24%
21%
|
72 | 78 | 6 | -1 |
| 07 Nov. 2024 |
MER
3 - 4
TOR
40%
27%
33%
|
72 | 77 | 5 | 0 |