Copa do Nordeste Quarter-finals
Global 1-3
Ceará vs Santa Cruz analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
43.9%
Win probability
1.54
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
+7
<0%
6-0
0.1%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.1%
5-0
0.4%
6-1
0.1%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.6%
4-0
1.4%
5-1
0.6%
6-2
0.1%
+4
2.1%
3-0
3.7%
4-1
1.8%
5-2
0.4%
6-3
<0%
+3
5.9%
2-0
7.2%
3-1
4.7%
4-2
1.1%
5-3
0.1%
6-4
<0%
+2
13.2%
1-0
9.4%
2-1
9.1%
3-2
2.9%
4-3
0.5%
5-4
<0%
+1
21.9%
25%
Draw
0-0
6.1%
1-1
11.8%
2-2
5.7%
3-3
1.2%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
25%
31.1%
Win probability
1.26
Expected goals
0-1
7.6%
1-2
7.4%
2-3
2.4%
3-4
0.4%
4-5
0%
-1
17.9%
0-2
4.8%
1-3
3.1%
2-4
0.8%
3-5
0.1%
-2
8.8%
0-3
2%
1-4
1%
2-5
0.2%
3-6
0%
-3
3.2%
0-4
0.6%
1-5
0.2%
2-6
0%
-4
0.9%
0-5
0.2%
1-6
0.1%
-5
0.2%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Ceará
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 Mar. 2016 |
SAN
2 - 1
CEA
48%
25%
27%
|
66 | 68 | 2 | 0 |
| 27 Mar. 2016 |
CEA
1 - 1
FOR
50%
24%
26%
|
66 | 66 | 0 | 0 |
| 24 Mar. 2016 |
CEA
1 - 0
VIT
75%
16%
8%
|
66 | 51 | 15 | 0 |
| 20 Mar. 2016 |
MAR
0 - 4
CEA
11%
19%
70%
|
66 | 39 | 27 | 0 |
| 17 Mar. 2016 |
CEA
0 - 0
UNI
85%
12%
4%
|
66 | 43 | 23 | 0 |
Matches
Santa Cruz
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 Mar. 2016 |
SAN
2 - 1
CEA
48%
25%
27%
|
68 | 66 | 2 | 0 |
| 26 Mar. 2016 |
AME
0 - 0
SAN
9%
18%
73%
|
68 | 38 | 30 | 0 |
| 24 Mar. 2016 |
BAH
1 - 0
SAN
43%
26%
31%
|
69 | 69 | 0 | -1 |
| 20 Mar. 2016 |
SAN
1 - 1
NAU
53%
24%
23%
|
69 | 65 | 4 | 0 |
| 17 Mar. 2016 |
RIO
0 - 1
SAN
15%
21%
64%
|
68 | 50 | 18 | +1 |